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Jeremy Perry
Sugar Bowl Spread: Texas vs. Georgia Odds, Prediction
The Texas Longhorns made the Big 12 Championship Game, and for that reason, they were able to gain entry to the New Year’s Six bowl system as the Big 12 representative when Oklahoma went to the College Football Playoff. In years when the Sugar Bowl is not a playoff semifinal, the Big 12’s runner-up goes to the Sugar Bowl if the conference puts its champion into the playoff, which is the case this season with Oklahoma playing Alabama in the Orange Bowl. Texas therefore made this game despite four losses.
Betting Analysis
The Longhorns are viewed as an up-and-coming program in the Big 12. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger played well for them this season, and he injured his shoulder late in the year. Having a month of rest is exactly what this team needs to regroup for the Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns will be highly motivated to play this game against an SEC opponent. Texas coach Tom Herman has an excellent record against the spread as an underdog, though the Horns did not cover the spread in the Big 12 Championship Game against Oklahoma on Dec. 1.
The Georgia Bulldogs led Alabama, 28-14, in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 1. They then missed a field goal, allowed two touchdowns, and were close to midfield on fourth down inside the last four minutes of the game in a 28-28 tie. Kirby Smart, Georgia’s head coach, opted for a fake punt which Alabama sniffed out. The fake punt failed, Alabama took over near midfield, and drove down the gridiron to score a go-ahead touchdown and eventually win, 35-28. The fake punt will never be forgotten in Georgia, but it means that the Bulldogs now have to push it to the back of their minds and focus on beating Texas.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns started the season by stumbling at Maryland, but they quickly regrouped and defeated USC and TCU in consecutive weeks in the second half of September to reorient their season. They then beat Oklahoma, 48-45, to gain a leg up in the Big 12. They lost games later in the season at Oklahoma State and at home to West Virginia, but when Oklahoma beat West Virginia on Nov. 23, Texas got into the Big 12 title game as the second-place team in the conference. Texas played OU evenly for three quarters but faded in the fourth and lost, 39-27. They will try to rebound in the Sugar Bowl and gain a momentum boost before the 2019 season.
Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs won 11 games this year, which represents a very good year for a program which lost Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Roquan Smith, and other elite players from the team which lost the national championship game a season ago. Yet, Georgia still lost the two most important games it played, to LSU in October and to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Blowing a 14-point lead could haunt the Bulldogs in this game. If they are unmotivated, Texas can beat them. If they play hard, they should be able to physically punish the Longhorns. That’s the ultimate key to this game.
