New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Odds, Prediction
A titanic series for American League East supremacy gets started Monday in Tampa Bay. The Yankees (49-40, 2nd in AL East) battle the Rays (52-35, 1st in AL East) at 6:40 p.m. ET. This game is the sixth meeting of the year, first since May 24, and the Rays lead the season series 4-1.
The standing between these two teams has changed dramatically over the past couple of weeks. On June 17, the Yankees improved to 45-27, while the Rays fell to 41-30. The Yankees have since gone 4-13, and the Rays have since gone 11-5. The Rays did take an eight-game win streak into the Fourth of July, but then lost to the Astros Saturday and Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have lost three consecutive series to losing teams, two of which were at home.
On Monday, it’s the best the Yankees have in Cam Schlittler, going up against swingman Griffin Jax.
This game is a pick’em on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Rays have been scary good at home (MLB-best 31-12 record). The Yankees, however, have actually been better on the road (26-20). Despite their polar opposite recent play, the Yankees still own a +78 run differential, while the Rays are just +35.
The five games’ scores between these teams in 2026 have been: 5-3 Rays, 5-4 Rays, 5-4 Rays, 4-2 Rays and 2-0 Yankees.
This is a matchup of two very different hitting philosophies. The Yankees top the MLB with 128 home runs, but rank 25th in batting average. The Rays rank third in baseball in batting average and 26th in home runs.
The Yankees rank second in the MLB with a 3.10 bullpen ERA, and the Rays rank 21st with a 4.36 ERA.
New York Yankees
The Yankees continue to struggle without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and now Jazz Chisholm Jr. is banged up.
Over the last couple weeks, they have dropped from a top 10 OPS on the road to 17th (.703), and they rank a mediocre 14th against right-handed pitching with a .730 OPS.
Ben Rice leads the team in home runs (24) and RBIs (56), and has been the Yankees’ most consistent producer. But Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger (3.5 bWAR) have gone ice cold.
Schlittler has been the best starting pitcher in the American League at large, sporting a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 126 strikeouts — all rank top six in baseball. However, he has gotten smacked as of late, allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings over his past two starts combined.
The Rays see him well (.273 AVG), and he allowed three runs in the first two innings when Schlittler faced off against them earlier this year. Schlittler has been untouchable on the road though with a 1.03 ERA.
Tampa Bay Rays
Offensively, the Rays’ whole modus operandi is putting the ball in play and making you play defence. They don’t slug at a high clip outside of the electrifying Junior Caminero (26 home runs), but Yandy Diaz is hitting .321, (third in MLB) and Jonathan Aranda boasts 58 RBIs.
Despite their lack of slug, the Rays rock an elite .783 OPS at home and .759 OPS against RHP.
The other side of this equation is a bit more concerning for the Rays. Jax has been a little worse at home (.371 ERA), the Yankees are 9-for-29 lifetime against him and he has been bashed by left-handed hitters this year (.801 OPS), and the Yankees have plenty of left-handed pop.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Rays?
I actually want to zag here and take the injured, struggling Yankees. Schlittler was bad the last two times out, but I’m betting he comes back strong here. The Yankees have a big starting pitching and bullpen edge, they need a win to get back into the right spirits, and they have the left-handed bats to do damage in this matchup.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+155)
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