Minnesota Lynx v. New York Liberty WNBA preview and prediction

Two of the WNBA’s best square off Friday at Barclays Center when the league-leading Minnesota Lynx face the New York Liberty at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Rookie Olivia Miles, the No. 2 overall pick out of TCU, has been a godsend for the Lynx, who have won nine of 10 on the road and are 15-4 overall — even without five-time All-Star Napheesa Collier.

The Liberty are a mixed bag right now. They have dropped four of five overall and just concluded a 1-3 road trip. However, their last time on the court, on Tuesday at home, they defeated the Las Vegas Aces 93-85 to become the first franchise to win the Commissioner’s Cup twice.

This is the first of three meetings between the two teams this season. Minnesota took three of four from the Liberty last season.

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

Minnesota is listed as a 2.5-point road favourite on the WNBA odds with a -140 moneyline, while New York’s moneyline is at +120. The Lynx are 9-1 straight up and against the spread on the road. New York is 7-4 ATS at home, including Tuesday’s non-league result.

The over/under for this contest is 174.5. The Liberty have played to the over in five of seven. The Lynx have played to the under in four of five.

Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota won its last time out, an 85-77 triumph over the Dallas Wings on Sunday. Natasha Howard had 21 points, 14 rebounds and three steals, while Miles added 21 points and eight assists. 

Miles, who leads the team with 18.7 points and 5.7 assists per game, is averaging 21.3 points over her last three contests. She has emerged as the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favourite at -2500, with Dallas’s Azzi Fudd next at +2000. Miles also has the third-best odds, at +900, to win the league’s MVP. 

Her immediate ascension has helped Minnesota stay atop the league standings despite the absence of Collier, who was the runner-up for the league’s MVP last season. She has missed all of 2026 to date after having surgery on both of her ankles earlier this year.

However, she was just cleared to return to team practices. A Collier-Miles pairing could be scary in the second half of the season. 

New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart was Tuesday night’s MVP with 25 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. 

However, the most important performance may have been teammate Sabrina Ionescu’s. The 4-time All-Star, who has missed extended time this season with a back injury, had a season-best 26 points — including a team-high five threes made.

That tally was 10 more than the previous season-high for Ionescu, who is averaging a career-low 9.5 points — good for only sixth on the team. 

New York needs it. The Liberty have dropped to 12-8 and are tied for fourth in the league. Stewart (19.2 ppg, 8.2 REB) is having her usual MVP-worthy performance, but getting Ionescu back up to standard is of the utmost importance.

Veteran Jonquel Jones is still getting the job done to the tune of 15.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, but the Liberty have been without Satou Sabally for the past three games. The veteran forward, who is third on the team at 10.4 points per game, is currently in concussion protocol. 

WNBA Prediction: Who will win Lynx vs. Liberty?

Ionescu’s performance Tuesday has to be a huge morale boost, but don’t expect her to light up the scoreboard every night right now. The Liberty, barring more injuries, will be fine down the stretch.

However, the Lynx are doing just fine, even without Collier. Look for Minnesota to stay hot on the road, where it has won four straight, and win 83-79.