Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Odds, Prediction
-
Kevin Thompkins
Friday is the first of a three-game weekend set at Chase Field between the Milwaukee Brewers (53-32) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-43).
The Brew Crew is fresh off taking three of four games from the Cincinnati Reds at home and will now embark on an 11-game road trip to close the unofficial first half of the season before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are evened up at .500 after taking two of three from the San Francisco Giants, which came on the heels of being swept in Tampa Bay against the Rays.
Milwaukee is five games clear of the Chicago Cubs for the lead in the NL Central, while Arizona is a whopping 12.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, but they are still well within contention in a packed NL wild card race – where even the Colorado Rockies are just a dozen games back and a good run away from making noise.
This game promises to be a good one, so let’s predict a winner and break down the action.
The Brewers are -150 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been excellent over the last several games, with the game total going under in four of their last five. It fits with their modus operandi of small ball, good pitching and defence.
Meanwhile, outside of Ketel Marte’s recent home run binge, the Diamondbacks have had trouble plating runs as of late, as their game total has gone under in an extended run of 13 of their last 20 games. Trusting the Brewers’ pitching to stymie Arizona’s hitters and taking an inflated 8.5-runline seem like the plays for this game.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are 26th in home runs entering play, but are fifth in MLB in runs, so they’re playing small ball and working the bases with the fifth-most stolen bases. They’ve received excellent contributions from William Contreras (.293, 51 RBI), Brice Turang (12 HR, 49 RBI, 13 SB. team-leading 3.3 WAR), Jake Bauers (team-leading 15 HR and .858 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (team-leading .878 OPS, 12 HR, 33 RBI).
Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski is pretty good, folks. He leads baseball in ERA (1.47), strikeouts (156) and WHIP (0.78), and has been nearly automatic for the Brew Crew. Add on Kyle Harrison and his 8-1 record with a sterling 2.57 ERA and a returning Brandon Woodruff to the rotation, and the Brewers have the horses to make a deep October push for an NL pennant.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have decent pitching, but their offence as a whole has been pretty anemic. The DBacks have a bottom-five OPS (.694), are tied for the second-fewest home runs (78) and are bottom-12 in runs scored in 2026. If Arizona didn’t have the bats of Corbin Carroll (.870 OPS, 13 HR, 44 RBI) and Ketel Marte (.812 OPS, 17 HR, 54 RBI), the Diamondbacks could be just a very bad team competing with the Colorado Rockies for the worst team in at least the NL West.
Like their hitting, Arizona’s rotation has been carried by a couple of players, namely Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka for quality innings. Rodriguez has been awesome with a stellar 2.21 ERA and a 7-2 record over 17 starts, but the rest of their pitching – save for the injured Michael Soroka (8-3, 3.07 ERA) – has been pretty suspect this season. Zac Gallen has been atrocious and sports an ERA north of 6.00 after 18 starts, which is the worst ERA in MLB among qualified starters.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Brewers vs. Diamondbacks?
Milwaukee will send out Kyle Harrison to toe the rubber, and if it wasn’t for Misiorowski’s historic season, Harrison would be getting a lot more buzz in baseball circles. After the San Francisco Giants traded Harrison to the Boston Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal last June, Harrison was dealt again to the Brewers in the trade that sent Caleb Durbin to Boston. Now in Milwaukee, Harrison has been electric and has provided a quality No. 2 starter presence in the Brew Crew’s rotation.
Opposing Harrison is one of Arizona’s top prospects, Jose Cabrera. Cabrera is searching for his first Major League victory but has kept Arizona in both games he’s started, despite taking the loss in his last start on Saturday against the Rays.
While Cabrera gives Arizona a shot, the Brewers have been awesome as a team, winning eight of their last 11 games, so we’ll take Milwaukee.
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-102)
MIL
AZ