MLB Odds: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays ALDS series preview and prediction
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees finished tied with the best records in the American League and now they’ll meet in the ALDS.
However, Toronto won the tiebreaker to take the AL East division and earn a bye through the Wild Card Series.
New York faced Boston in the best-of-three wild-card, losing the first game and winning the last two.
The best-of-five series begins Saturday with the Blue Jays hosting Games 1, 2 and 5 (if the series goes the distance).
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Yankees vs. Blue Jays MLB ALDS Series Odds and Betting Trends
The Yankees enter Game 1 as -155 favourites to win the series, with the Jays sitting as +130 underdogs. That line seems a little disrespectful given Toronto won the season series 8-5 and they hold home field advantage. The Jays were 6-1 at home against New York this season.
The winner will face either Seattle or Detroit for the American League pennant and a chance to reach the World Series. Of course, the Yankees won the pennant last year before falling to the Dodgers in the World Series. The Blue Jays haven’t won the AL pennant since 1993 when they won the second of back-to-back World Series’.
The series is favoured to last four games at +130. If you’re banking on a series sweep for either side, you’re getting a juicy +270 price.
It’s no surprise to see New York slugger Aaron Judge favoured to lead the series in both hits (+500) and home runs (+400). It is a little surprising, however, to see Toronto’s struggling $500 million star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with the second-shortest odds to lead the series in hits (+550).
Judge hasn’t been known as a playoff performer in his career, so I see more value in George Springer to lead the series in hits (+650). Springer is having his best season as a Blue Jays and he’s an absolutely clutch playoff performer with a World Series MVP to his name.
New York Yankees
One of the Yankees biggest strengths will be their starting pitching, led by Max Fried, followed by lefty Carlos Rodon and rookie Cam Schlittler. However, the Game 1 starter is expected to be either Luis Gil or Will Warren, who both didn’t pitch in the Wild Card Series. New York could have lefties on the mound for three of five games, which is dangerous considering Guerrero is slashing .326/.428/.519 off left-handers.
Offensively, New York has arguably the best power hitter in the majors in Judge, whose 53 home runs this season tied a major league record for most seasons with at least 50 homers (four). Giancarlo Stanton is also a big power bat and the duo of Stanton and Judge is a big reason why the Yankees led all of baseball with 274 home runs this season.
New York also has speed, stealing 134 bases compared to just 77 for the Jays. However, they are prone to errors defensively and often rely too heavily on slugging their way out of trouble.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a major advantage with six days rest as they can put out their top starter for the opener, with Kevin Gausman confirmed to start Game 1. The speculation begins with Game 2. Toronto may elect to go with Chris Bassitt because he splits are night and day at home versus away (8-0 with a 2.71 ERA at home and 3-9, 5.47 ERA on the road).
Max Scherzer is the veteran of the staff, but he might have played himself out with an 0-3 record and 10.20 ERA in September. Rookie Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber have shown enough to get starts, but if Bassitt pitches at home, it could be a lot ask of a rookie to start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. There should be enough time off for Gausman to go again in Game 5.
A big loss to the lineup will be shortstop Bo Bichette, who hasn’t played since early September. Bichette led the American League in hits at the time of his injury, but he’s expected to miss the whole series because of a PCL sprain in his left knee. That puts more pressure on Guerrero, who has under produced this season with 24 homers and 84 RBIs, his lowest output since the 2020 COVID season.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Game 1 is absolutely crucial for the Jays to win. The Yankees have burned their top starters, so Toronto has to take advantage at home before New York’s big arms return late in the series.
Blue Jays win in five games.
