Jaguars vs. Raiders Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction
The 3-11 Jacksonville Jaguars are now without Trevor Lawrence (shoulder surgery) for the remainder of the season, making it Mac Jones’ team now. Las Vegas may get Aidan O’Connell back under centre this week after he missed last week’s 15-9 loss on Monday Night Football.
At 2-12 the Raiders currently would hold the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Six other NFL teams have a record of 3-11 or worse (including Jacksonville) which creates an interesting dynamic. Tanking may not outright exist in the NFL, but a win for either of these eliminated squads doesn’t do any help for their draft position. What nixes any tanking theories is the QBs: Jones and either O’Connell or Desmond Ridder are auditioning for future playing time… meaning you’ll get the best they got, for what that’s worth.
Kickoff at Allegiant Stadium goes at 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday, with oddsmakers listing this tilt as a pick’em and the over-under at 39.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Jags are 1-9 in their last 10 road games, the Raiders are 0-10 in their last 10 overall games. It’s about as ugly as it gets, but recent history does give Jacksonville an edge. Six of these teams last nine meetings have gone in Jacksonville’s favour and they’re 7-2 against the spread in those contests. Plus, Mac Jones is coming off a season-high 294 passing yards in a loss where the Jags scored 25 points — their highest point total in nearly two months. The Raiders have not hit 20 points in any of their last five games and are coming off a season-low nine-point outing.
Both teams here are allowing 26.9 points per game, tied for fifth-worst in the NFL. And while this Jaguars–Raiders tilt is guaranteed to be a battle of backup QBs, at least they’ll be up against some leaky defences.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Some new Jaguars are taking massive strides on offence. Rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has been the constant producer with a team-high 956 receiving yards, nearly triple of any other Jaguars pass-catcher. Thomas’ 105 receiving yards and two touchdown catches last week gave him franchise records in both receiving yards and touchdowns by a rookie. Sophomore tight end Brenton Strange hauled in 11 catches for 73 yards last week in his first start since replacing the injured Even Engram. Strange has an AC joint sprain but will be good to play Sunday, per head coach Doug Pederson.
Amidst this offensive production last week, Jacksonville still fell 32-25 to the Jets. Allowing 400 yards played a big role in the Jags loss, as did Jones’ two interceptions. Jacksonville was driving to tie the game until a Jones INT ended any hope — but the offence was productive overall.
Las Vegas Raiders
The 2024–25 Las Vegas Raiders simply aren’t a good football team, as trailing by double digits in all 14 games proves. But they can battle back, as seen in a win at Baltimore in Week 2 and close losses against Kansas City and last week against Atlanta.
On defence, the Raiders are starting to shut down as elimination is confirmed. Maxx Crosby’s season-ending ankle surgery makes him one of several Raiders defensive starters on the injured reserve. On offence, running back Sincere McCormick (ankle) has also gone on IR, opening the door back up for Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. The latter’s scored in three of Las Vegas’ last five games, providing a much-needed spark on offence.
JAC
LV