The New Orleans Saints were very close to starting 0-2 for the fifth season in a row. A dramatic surge from their offence and a little luck helped them avoid that fate with a 21-18 win over the Cleveland Browns. Atlanta has won three of the last four games between these teams, including a 20-17 win at home in Week 14 last season. With both teams seemingly primed to contend for a division title this season, there will be a lot more on the line in this matchup than some of the other games on the Week 3 schedule.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The fact that the total has gone over in four of the Saints last five games is a sign of trouble for a team that thrived last season when they were able to run the football and play tough defence. Ironically, the total has gone under in seven of New Orleans’ last nine games versus Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games dating back to last season. The Falcons struggled to move the football on the road in Week 1 at Philadelphia but bounced back and covered at home in a 31-24 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 2. Atlanta is now 7-1 in its last eight regular season games versus NFC South opponents dating back to 2016.

New Orleans Saints

Nothing seemed to be going right for New Orleans until the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Browns. Then, things started to click. Drew Brees found Michael Thomas twice in the end zone and the Saints outscored Cleveland 17-7 in the final frame to steal a 21-18 win. Without running back Mark Ingram, New Orleans has struggled to move the football on the ground. Alvin Kamara has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry while Mike Gillislie, who was signed to help ease Kamara’s load with Ingram out, has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry. The Saints will remain committed to the run for as long as they can against the Falcons this week. Whether or not they can move the ball on the ground will go a long way towards determining whether New Orleans can win on the road this week.

Meanwhile, the Saints defensive improvements were a big part of their success a year ago. That will need to be the case again this season if this team is going to contend. New Orleans surrendered 527 yards in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 and then gave up 327 yards to the Browns last week. While the defence gave up 18 points, they really should have allowed much more as the Browns kicker missed multiple field goals and extra points.

Atlanta Falcons

One week after struggling mightily against the Eagles, the Falcons offence came alive with 31 points against a tough Carolina defence. Matt Ryan threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Tevin Coleman averaged a ridiculous 6.7 yards per carry while rushing for 107 yards on 16 carries. Atlanta will lean on Coleman again this week as Devonta Freeman is still out. The offence was balanced in Week 2 as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley combined for nine catches in Week 2 against the Panthers.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ bend-but-don’t-break defence looked excellent against Carolina before giving up two late touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Atlanta’s defence features plenty of speed both up front and in the defensive secondary. If they can slow down the Saints big weapons in Thomas and Kamara, then the Falcons should be able to add to their strong run of covering the spread at home.

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction