NCAA Basketball Futures: Undefeated Arizona favoured to win national championship
It’s early February now, which means that as soon as the Super Bowl passes, it’s a full-court press on college basketball, through the first weekend of April. The sport has delivered a faster, louder, and more talent-rich landscape than it has in years.
Arizona’s historic undefeated run has put them atop a competitive pack. Powerhouse conferences like the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC continue to cannibalize themselves nightly, leads have been evaporating at alarming rates, and an absolutely dynamite and historic freshmen class is putting up video-game numbers against elite opponents on the road. Futures markets have been constantly in flux.
How did the NCAA Tournament odds change?
Arizona has surged to the top of the NCAA Tournament futures board at +375, a deserved price given a pristine 22-0 start, mixing three impact freshmen with three sturdy upperclassmen. Michigan (+450) has become Arizona’s biggest challenger, driven by elite defence and unreal front-court play, led by three stars 6-feet-9 or taller. Duke (+750) and the Houston-UConn pairing (both +1100) remain respected, but neither has separated itself from the field.
The biggest movers come just below that tier. Illinois has shortened to +1500 after starting the year around +2000, powered by an 11-game win streak and the nation’s most efficient offence. Florida has climbed into the +1800 range after surging atop the SEC, while Purdue has drifted to +1800 amid a three-game skid and defensive regression. Gonzaga, also +1800, remains steady despite an injury to star forward Braden Huff, signalling market belief in its March upside.
Hot teams to watch
Illinois might be the most dangerous team in the country right now. The Illini continue to roll despite missing senior point guard Kylan Boswell for the last few games. Freshman phenom Keaton Wagler has changed their ceiling entirely, dropping 46 at Purdue and 28 at Nebraska while drawing constant defensive attention.
Michigan also belongs firmly in the “hot” category, boasting the nation’s top defence per KenPom and legitimate Final Four balance. Florida’s rise in the SEC is no fluke either, although its guard play still needs to rise alongside immaculate front-court play.
Arizona, while freshman-heavy, plays with rare toughness and values shot quality. The upcoming gauntlet (six of their next eight opponents are ranked) will certainly push them to their limits, but nothing so far suggests regression.
Cold squads to watch
Purdue is the most notable fade. Once No. 1 nationally, the Boilermakers have lost three straight while allowing opponents to shoot nearly 43 per cent from deep. Kentucky remains maddeningly inconsistent, capable of knocking off Arkansas one night and disappearing the next. Duke continues to win, but concerns linger about over-reliance on freshman Cameron Boozer and underclassmen. This market price leaves little margin for error.
Best NCAA Tournament futures bet to lock in right now: Illinois To Make Final Four (+310)
Illinois checks every box that futures bettors should be hunting in February. They’re elite offensively, improving defensively, battle-tested in a brutal Big Ten, and driven by a freshman star who can take over games without monopolizing the offence.
Wagler’s emergence has unlocked cleaner looks for everyone else, while the team’s size and spacing translate beautifully to neutral-site basketball. At +310 just to reach the Final Four, this is about upside and matchup-proof scoring. Illinois feels like the right team to back before the number gets any shorter.
