Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2: UFC 329 Betting Odds, Prediction
It’s a rematch 13 years in the making as Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon to face Max Holloway in a welterweight bout at UFC 329 on Saturday in Las Vegas.
These two fighters originally met early in their respective UFC careers, with McGregor winning a unanimous decision featherweight fight.
However, the ensuing decade+ has brought a lot of change, including McGregor and Holloway each winning and losing championship belts.
Because of McGregor’s long layoff, Holloway enters as a -235 favourite to win on the UFC 329 odds, while the Irishman is a +190 underdog.
Conor McGregor UFC 329 Odds
When McGregor (22-6) steps into the Octagon on Saturday, it will have been almost five years to the day since he last fought. That night in July 2021 was a bit of a disaster for him as he broke his leg while suffering a second straight TKO defeat at the hands of Dustin Poirier.
It’s been a spectacular fall from grace for the first men’s double champion in UFC history. McGregor had an absolutely legendary run from 2013 to 2016, which saw him claim both the lightweight and featherweight belts.
It all started going downhill for “Notorious” when he boxed Floyd Mayweather in a losing effort in 2017. McGregor has only had four UFC fights since 2018, going 1-3. Health and legal issues have kept the soon-to-be 38-year-old on the shelf and there’s never been a bigger question mark on him.
At his best, McGregor holds devastating knockout power and he is a quick starter, securing 14 first-round finishes. Leaning on that history is his best bet in this fight. Knockout power doesn’t just evaporate and his opponent is known for being tough and durable, so McGregor needs to land that perfect shot early to win this fight.
Max Holloway UFC 329 Odds
Holloway (27-9) is fighting for the second time this year after losing the BMF title by unanimous decision against Charles Oliveira in March. However, “Blessed” has a major advantage over his opponent because he has stayed active, fighting eight times and going 5-3 since McGregor’s last appearance.
Holloway also holds championship pedigree as a one-time UFC featherweight belt-holder, although he’s never had a successful title defence outside of the symbolic BMF belt. The 34-year-old is arguably best known for losing a trilogy of featherweight championship fights against Alexander Volkanovski.
What’s really interesting about this fight, is the line movement. Holloway opened as a -550 favourite and that price was cut in half by the start of fight week. Take that drop with a grain of salt, however, as I honestly believe it’s simply related to how much bigger McGregor’s fanbase is.
It’s a simple path to victory for Holloway on Saturday. McGregor hasn’t fought in five years and he knows he won’t last in the championship rounds, so Holloway needs to let the Irishman tire himself early before finishing things around the third or fourth round.
UFC 329 Prediction: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Ironically, McGregor has earned the nickname “Notorious” more in recent years, although there’s nothing positive behind it. I see Holloway letting McGregor take big swings and misses early before making his move.
Prediction: Holloway wins by KO/TKO (-140)