Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Tompkins
We’ve got a National League showdown pitting two contenders against each other in the first game of a three-game series on Friday. The Atlanta Braves (54-38) will head to Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals (48-44) in a weekend series that will be the last one before the All-Star break.
The Braves are pacing the NL East right now, as they’re several games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins at the time of this writing.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are in the wild card race as one of the top non-division-leading teams, but they’ve lost five of their last six games — including four of five to the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Before Friday’s first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for the game.
Atlanta is a -170 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Atlanta’s offence is well above average, and in the last seven games, the Braves are averaging 7.3 runs per game. Most run totals are between 7.0 and 8.5, so the Braves are beating the over/under by themselves in some cases. Clearly, it’s no surprise that the Braves have gone over in five of their last six games.
St. Louis, on the other hand, has scored just 3.4 runs per game in their mini-slump, so we can play the run total, but ultimately, taking the Braves runline is the more advantageous way to play it.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves, while still atop the NL East, have lost the double-digit lead that they had weeks ago. They’re clearly still one of the best teams in baseball, but they aren’t infallible. Still, they’re buoyed by All-Star game starters Ozzie Albies (.272, 14 HR, 51 RBI) and Drake Baldwin (15 HR, 45 RBI), and while Matt Olson isn’t starting, he’s been the Braves’ best hitter with 25 HR and 58 RBI with a .888 OPS and 3.0 WAR in the officially “unofficial” first half of the season. While Michael Harris won’t be going to Philadelphia for the All-Star festivities, we’d be remiss in not mentioning his .838 OPS, 16 HR and 53 RBI, which would merit consideration in most seasons.
Atlanta’s pitching across the board has been excellent this season, despite injuries to Martin Perez and Spencer Strider. Leading the way is Friday’s starter for the Braves, Chris Sale. Bucking Father Time at age 37, Sale is putting up one of his best seasons with a 2.27 ERA — his best mark since 2018.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are in a very interesting spot, because they weren’t supposed to contend this year, and especially not this soon, but as they say, “the kids are alright.” Jordan Walker, who seems like he has been around forever at this point, is just 24 years old and is currently leading baseball with 70 RBI while putting up a robust .893 OPS with 22 HR, 12 SB and a .294 batting average. This start doesn’t happen without Walker, but his 3.5 WAR isn’t even the best on the team. That distinction belongs to rookie shortstop JJ Wetherholt, who has been the best fielder in baseball per Statcast’s fielding value metric, and his 3.8 WAR leads the team. In addition to the fielding, Wetherholt has a solid .773 OPS with 13 HR and 36 RBI. He’s the clubhouse leader in terms of NL Rookie of the Year consideration.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Braves vs. Cardinals?
Friday’s matchup puts one of the most imposing pitchers in baseball on the bump for the Braves. Sale’s 2.27 ERA is fourth in all of baseball, and he has given up more than three runs just once in 16 starts this season. Opposing him is the Cardinals’ right-handed veteran Kyle Leahy. Sporting a 3.86 ERA, Leahy has been excellent as of late. In 16.1 innings across his last three starts, Leahy has allowed just one earned run and scattered just eight total hits.
Against a very good Braves’ offence, even at home, the Cardinals are going to have their work cut out for them. We’ll take the Braves with Sale on the bump.
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100)
ATL
STL