Buccaneers vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
After both teams lost as favourites last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) travel to Orchard Park, New York, to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-3).
The Buccaneers’ defence surrendered three touchdowns of 55 yards or more and struggled offensively, going 5-for-13 on third down, in a 28-23 loss to the New England Patriots as a 2.5-point favourite.
The Bills’ performance was far worse. As an eight-point favourite against the lowly Miami Dolphins, Buffalo could not manage a first down until the second half and did not score until the fourth quarter in an embarrassing 30-13 defeat.
Both teams are hurting, with the Bucs still missing multiple wide receivers and Buffalo potentially without reliable tight end Dalton Kincaid on Sunday.
The Week 11 NFL odds board has the Bills as 5.5-point favourites.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay is 4-1 straight up and against the spread on the road and is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games against the Bills. Buffalo is just 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games, and 2-3 ATS at home overall.
The Bucs have played to the over five times in seven games, while Buffalo has played to the under four times in five games.
Despite last week’s performance, the Bills are still +900 to win the Super Bowl, while the Bucs are +3000. Tampa Bay wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is the odds-on favourite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award at -125.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite the loss to New England, the Buccaneers are still in a great position to win their fifth consecutive NFC South title. However, asking how far they can go in the postseason is a valid question, especially with future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans shelved for the season.
Egbuka has been a godsend for Baker Mayfield, who is still a dark horse MVP candidate. Mayfield has thrown for 2,192 yards and 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Egbuka (40-677-6) has been on the receiving end of many of those throws.
With Chris Godwin looking to be sidelined again on Sunday, Egbuka’s emergence has likely salvaged Tampa Bay’s offensive season.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s run of five straight AFC East crowns is in more serious jeopardy, as the Bills currently trail New England by 1.5 games.
The shorthanded defence has struggled most of the season, although the passing defence (170.2 yards per game) is still third in the league and should challenge Mayfield on Sunday.
The red flag here is the offence. The passing game is limp, and if Kincaid can’t play, Allen loses most of his short options outside of running back James Cook. Khalil Shakir (45-457-3) and Keon Coleman (32-330-3) just don’t inspire fear in opposing secondaries.
Cook is second in the NFL with 920 rushing yards, and Buffalo’s second-ranked offence (384.4 ypg) relies on its top-ranked ground game (153.2 ypg) more than most other teams. But it was held to a season-low 86 yards against Miami’s defence, which had allowed an average of 145.6 yards rushing per game. The Bucs’ defence (100.8 ypg allowed) is far less hospitable.
Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Bills?
The Bucs travel well, but the Bills have held court at home. Something has to give. I believe Buffalo is going to rebound, but will not cover as 5.5-point favourites. Look for late-game heroics by Allen and Cook and for Buffalo to win at the end, 31-28.
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