Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Thompkins
Friday’s game emanates from American Family Field and features the Chicago Cubs (44-37) traveling north up the coast of Lake Michigan to face the Milwaukee Brewers (49-29) in the first of three games in this weekend’s NL Central series.
The Cubs swept the Mets in their four-game series and are winners of six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the second-best record in the National League, are on a four-game winning streak and hold a comfortable 6.5-game lead in the Central.
This game will be a great one, so let’s predict a winner and break down this NL Central clash.
Milwaukee is a -250 favourite on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Cubs have been scoring a ton of runs lately, as their game total has gone over in six of their last seven games – but they also haven’t faced Jacob Misiorowski in any of those games. Both the Cubs and Brewers have won their last four games, but the Brewers have done it with their pitching and their games have gone under in four of their last five because of it. With Miz on the mound Friday, the under looks like a solid play given he has given up a grand total of three earned in his last nine starts.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are cruising right now, riding the heroics of Pete Crow-Armstrong, who drove in the game-winning run with a double in the 10th inning of Wednesday’s 4-3 win. Crow-Armstrong has vaulted himself into National League MVP talks with his MLB-leading 5.0 WAR, while he also leads the Cubs with 18 stolen bases, an .888 OPS, 17 HR and a robust .521 SLG. Add in a truly historic three-game stretch from Dansby Swanson, who combined for 15 RBI in the first three games against the Mets, and the Northsiders are on a nice offensive tear right now. It all falls in line with their overall hitting this season – boasting the fifth-highest OPS (.744) and plating the seventh-most runs in baseball.
Chicago is piecing together their rotation with multiple injuries to players like Justin Steele, who is likely out for the season, and Jameson Taillon, who is out until after the All-Star break. Not to mention, the Cubs sustained recent injuries to Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown, who both hit the IL in the last two days. The Cubs’ staff has given up the most home runs in baseball and is below average in team ERA (4.30), so it’s been a tough go so far this season with players healthy. Now they will have to weather this storm of injuries on top of that.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are 28th in home runs but are still scoring a bunch of runs, as they’re third in MLB in that category. They’ve received excellent contributions from William Contreras (.302, 48 RBI), Brice Turang (11 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB. team-leading 3.0 WAR), Jake Bauers (team-leading 14 HR and .885 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (.870 OPS, 10 HR, 30 RBI).
We’d be remiss to omit Cy Young frontrunner Misiorowski and his takeover of the National League through 15 starts. He leads baseball in ERA (1.45), strikeouts (138) and WHIP (0.75) and has been nearly automatic for the Brew Crew. Add on Kyle Harrison and his 8-1 record with a sterling 2.50 ERA and a returning Brandon Woodruff to the rotation, and the Brewers have the horses to make a deep October run.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Cubs vs. Brewers?
The Cubs will send out Colin Rea to start Friday, amidst a sea of starting pitching injuries. Rea’s ERA is teetering just below 5.00 at 4.99, but he had a nice bounce-back start against the Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday after giving up 11 earned runs in his previous two starts. Opposing Rea is the overwhelming favourite for the NL Cy Young Award. Misiorowski has given up just three earned runs through his last nine starts since May 1 while averaging just under 10 strikeouts per outing. He’s pretty good, folks.
With the Brewers sending out their ace to toe the rubber, we’ll go with Misiorowski and the Brew Crew against the Cubs.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-126)
CHC
MIL