Wimbledon 2026 First Round Predictions: Shapovalov, Andreescu and Canadian best bets

Five Canadians are in the field across the men’s and women’s sides, and they are the usual suspects: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Gabriel Diallo, Bianca Andreescu, and Leylah Fernandez.

Shapovalov has an especially intriguing opening matchup on his hands against familiar foe Pablo Carreno Busta. Both Andreescu and Fernandez have tricky opponents on their hands in the form of Shuai Zhang and Janice Tjen, respectively.

Let’s break down the odds for some of the Wimbledon first-round matchups and discuss the best bets to make. 

Denis Shapovalov vs. Pablo Carreno Busta best bet: Carreno Busta +1.5 sets (-120)  

This will be the ninth meeting between Shapovalov and Carreno Busta, with Carreno Busta dominating the head-to-head series 6-2. They have faced each other twice at Grand Slams, and the veteran Spaniard has prevailed twice, both times at the U.S. Open – in straight sets in the 2017 fourth round and in five in the 2020 quarterfinals.

Carreno Busta may be past his prime at 34 years old, but he is coming off an impressive fourth-round performance at Roland Garros. 

As for Shapovalov, he is in dreadful form at the moment. The world No. 41 is a horrendous 1-6 in his last seven matches, a stretch that includes three straight-set losses to opponents ranked outside the top 100. Carreno Busta has a great chance to take at least two sets in this match, and he might even win it outright. 

Gabriel Diallo vs. Benjamin Bonzi best bet: Diallo ML (-152)  

Diallo has also been mired in a significant slump, but he showed signs of life this week in Eastbourne. The world No. 91 defeated Terence Atmane and Tomas Martin Etcheverry before falling to Jack Draper in the quarterfinals. Success on grass is nothing new for Diallo, who stands at 6’8” and is one of the biggest servers on tour. His lone ATP title has come on grass (‘s-Hertogenbosch last summer).  

Up first for the University of Kentucky standout is a second showdown against Bonzi. Their only previous meeting came this past fall on the hard courts of Shanghai, where Diallo cruised 6-4, 6-4. Bonzi is also a capable grass-court player, but the 30-year-old Frenchman is struggling at 93rd in the rankings. This is a nice opportunity to secure his spot in the Wimbledon second round.  

Bianca Andreescu vs. Shuai Zhang best bet: Andreescu -2.5 games (-120)  

Gone are the days when Andreescu was one of the best players in the world. In fact, she won the U.S. Open in 2019. Injuries derailed the 26-year-old’s career, but she can still play some good tennis when healthy – and that appears to be the case right now. At No. 180 in the world, Andreescu was forced to qualify for the Wimbledon main draw. She did so successfully with victories over Polona Hercog, Jil Teichmann, and Aliaksandra Sasnovich – two of them coming in straight sets. 

Tuesday marks the first meeting between Andreescu and Zhang. Despite being 37 years old, Zhang has won only seven more grass-court matches (41-40 record) in her career than Andreescu (34-22 record). The Chinese veteran has been mediocre at best on grass this summer. She qualified at Queen’s Club and in Berlin but got crushed by Alexandra Eala 6-3, 6-2 and by Karolina Muchova 6-1, 6-3 in the opening round of those tournaments. Zhang then got blown out by Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-5, 6-4 in the first round of Bad Homburg qualifying. Look for Andreescu to maintain momentum from punching her ticket into the Wimbledon main draw.