Brazil vs. Japan Prediction: FIFA World Cup Odds, Betting Picks
Five-time champion Brazil has reached at least the quarterfinals in every World Cup since 1994. Japan has advanced to the knockout stage in four of the last six World Cups, but has been eliminated in the Round of 16 each time. The teams meet up in a Round of 32 matchup Monday afternoon in Houston at 1 p.m. ET.
Brazil finished top of Group C after drawing with Morocco and pounding both Haiti and Scotland. Vinicius Junior put his hat in a very crowded ring of superstars for the Golden Boot with four goals. Japan advanced after finishing second in Group F behind the Netherlands, whom they battled to a 2-2 opening-round draw. The Japanese also defeated Tunisia, 4-0, and fought Sweden to a 1-1 draw. Seven different players assisted on Japan’s seven goals.
Check out our full list of live 2026 World Cup betting odds.
Brazil vs. Japan World Cup how to watch & match info
- Time: Monday, June 29, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
- Channel: TSN, TSN+
- Weather: Hot and humid, 30 to 35 °C. Expect the dome to be closed with the heat index threatening.
Brazil vs. Japan Betting Odds
Brazil is favoured to win in 90 minutes at -135 odds, while Japan is priced at +390, and a draw is set at +280. Brazil has a -290 price to advance, while Japan are +220 underdogs. The Over/Under for goals is set at 2.5, with the Under favoured at -130.
Brazil vs. Japan Predicted Starting XI Lineups
Brazil (4-3-3): Alisson, Danilo, Santos, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Paquetá, Fabinho, Bruno Guimarães; Rayan, Cunha, Vinícius Júnior
Japan (4-2-3-1): Z. Suzuki, Itakura, H. Ito, Seko, Y. Suzuki, Tanaka; Sano, Sugawara, J. Suzuki, J. Ito, Goto
Brazil FIFA World Cup Odds and News
Recency bias aids the point of view on the Selecao. Yes, they looked dominant against a messy Haiti and a flustered Scotland that struggled simply to play out of the back. But the Brazilians fell behind against a considerably more talented and disciplined Morocco side in their group opener. Japan might not reach Morocco’s talent level, but the discipline is certainly there.
Many are wondering why the Selecao are not being talked about in the same breath as France, Spain, and Argentina. But that’s what happens when you exit in the quarterfinals of four of the last five World Cups. And, in the other one at home in 2014, you get bludgeoned, 7-1, by Germany. This Brazil iteration is certainly talented, but whether it can live up to the crest is to be seen.
Japan FIFA World Cup Odds and News
Is this the year the Japanese break through? With the extra knockout stage, it would be frustrating if the Blue Samurai failed to advance yet again, but this is a very tough matchup for coach Hajime Moriyasu’s side. Looking back on group play, Japan posted one of the most impressive results, drawing a Netherlands team that looked primed for a deep run.
The Japanese have speed. In Ayase Ueda, the Eredivisie’s top scorer last season with 25 goals for Feyenoord, they have a finisher who tallied twice in the win over Tunisia. Daichi Kamada scored against both the Dutch and the Tunisians. The team does have holes as they are without both captain Wataru Endo and Kaoru Mitoma, who are both out for the tournament. And Takefusa Kubo is still nursing a knee injury he suffered against the Dutch.
Brazil vs. Japan Player Odds and Props
Vinicius Junior is a -130 favourite to score a goal. He scored in each of Brazil’s three group stage matches. Matheus Cunha, who has three goals, carries +190 odds. Ueda, who had a brace against Tunisia, is Japan’s favoured bet for a goal at +230.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Bracket and Futures
Brazil is +135 to reach the quarterfinals yet again, while Japan is +370 to get there the first time. The Brazilians are +1200 to win it all, while the Japanese carry +4500 odds.
Brazil vs. Japan Score Prediction
This seems like a great place to take Japan to provide one of the upsets of the tournament with a win in penalties. But, I’m going to ride with Vinicius Junior’s class and take Brazil to advance, 2-1.