New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The road to the American League pennant goes through Toronto as the top-seeded Blue Jays open the best-of-five ALDS at home Saturday afternoon against the New York Yankees.
The Jays are -125 favourites on the MLB odds for Game 1 with a total of 7.5, but they are series underdogs.
Betting Analysis
Toronto closed the regular season with four straight wins to earn its first AL East title since 2015 and the top seed in the Junior Circuit playoffs. That meant Toronto got to avoid the Wild-Card Round, in which the Blue Jays have lost six straight games, swept in 2023 by Minnesota, in 2022 by Seattle and in 2020 by Tampa Bay. The last time Toronto was in the ALDS was in 2016 when it swept Texas in three but then lost in the ALCS to Cleveland in five. The Jays haven’t won a pennant since 1993 when they won their second straight (and most recent) World Series title.
The big question for Toronto entering the ALDS is the status of shortstop and pending free agent Bo Bichette, who hasn’t played since Sept. 6 due to a left knee sprain. It’s not looking good for him until possibly the ALCS if the Jays get there. They are +130 series underdogs on the MLB futures board, however, with New York at -150.
The 27-year-old Bichette is going to cash in this winter from Toronto or likely many suitors after a spectacular regular season in hitting .311 (career high in a full season and second in the AL) with 18 homers and 94 RBIs in 139 games. In 22 career playoff at-bats, Bichette is hitting .273 with a double, two walks a run and an RBI.
This marks the first-ever playoff series between the rivals. Toronto and New York ended the season tied atop the AL East with 94-68 records, but the Blue Jays won the season series 8-5. They had a four-game home sweep in July that propelled the team to the top of the division for the first time, where it stayed.
New York Yankees
The Yankees lost Game 1 of their Wild Card Series at home to Boston and AL Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet but won the next two to advance to the ALDS for a second straight year. They became just the third team to win a Wild Card Series after losing Game 1, joining the 2020 A’s (vs. the White Sox) and the 2020 Padres (vs. the Cardinals).
Last year, the Yankees beat Kansas City in four in the ALDS on the way to the pennant, and they are +155 favourites to repeat in the AL. Starting outfielder Cody Bellinger, a key off-season acquisition via trade from the Cubs, hurt his foot in Thursday’s 4-0 win over Boston to clinch but is expected to be ready.
Either 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA) or rookie Will Warren (9-8, 4.44 ERA) is expected to start on the mound Saturday but with both likely to pitch. Gil was not on the Wild Card roster, while Warren was but didn’t pitch. Warren was hit hard by the Blue Jays on July 2 at Rogers Centre, allowing a season-high eight runs in four innings. So it seems likely to be Gil, who beat the Jays on Sept. 6 at Yankee Stadium, allowing one run over six.
The Blue Jays will become the 26th different franchise that the Yankees will have faced in a post-season series all-time. The Yankees are 1-6 in their past seven in Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays
The only concern for the Blue Jays other than Bo Bichette would be rust having not played since last Sunday, but the team had some intrasquad games this week.
No doubt Toronto has to get superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going to win this series. He hasn’t homered since Sept. 5 and has just a .596 OPS since then with way too many ground balls.
On the flip side, former World Series MVP George Springer closed red hot, batting .347 with eight homers and a 1.097 OPS in the month of September.
The Jays haven’t officially announced their starting pitcher as of publication for Game 1 but it’s expected to be veteran righty Kevin Gausman for the second game in a row. Gausman and rookie Trey Yesavage did not appear in this week’s intrasquad games, which would seem to point they start Games 1-2.
Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt pitched Thursday this week, which would seem to rule them out here. Although, Bieber’s outing was short so he might be an option this weekend.
Gausman (10-11, 3.59 ERA) was not sharp in the regular-season finale Sunday vs. Tampa Bay, allowing four runs over 3.2 innings of a no-decision. And he wasn’t sharp the start prior, either, but had dominated the four previous. He is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 home starts this year and 2-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four overall outings vs. New York.
Aaron Judge is a career .354 hitter off Gausman with six homers in 48 at-bats. In eight career playoff appearances with the Orioles, Braves, Giants and Blue Jays, Gausman is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in 25.2 innings. The Jays are 8-2 in their past 10 at home.
NYY
TOR