2025 Canadian Election Odds: Liberals Favoured But Tight Race Looms

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney now leading the Liberal Party, the stakes are higher than ever. Oddsmakers have taken notice.

Sports Interaction has posted a wide range of markets for this year’s election, and while the Liberals are currently favoured to win both the popular vote and the most seats, there’s still plenty of value on the board—especially if you’re looking for a Conservative upset or minority government scenario.

Here are all of the current Canadian Election odds. 

Let’s break down the current odds and what they tell us about the shape of the race.

Odds to Form the Next Government

• Liberal Party Majority: -175
• Conservatives Majority: +400
• Conservatives Minority: +550
• Liberal Party Minority: +650

Oddsmakers are clearly buying into the Mark Carney bump. The Liberals are -175 favourites to form a majority government—implying a roughly 63.6% chance of securing 170 seats or more. That’s a strong position, especially given the volatility we’ve seen in Canadian elections in recent years.

Still, a Liberal minority isn’t out of the question at +650, and if you’re expecting the Carney honeymoon to wear off fast, a Conservative majority at +400 or minority at +550 might look pretty tempting. Pierre Poilievre’s camp continues to perform well in Western Canada and has gained some ground in Ontario, which could matter in key swing ridings.

Popular Vote Winner Odds

• Liberal Party: -225
• Conservatives: +175
• Bloc Québécois: +10000
• New Democratic Party: +10000
• Green Party: +20000
• People’s Party of Canada: +50000

Here’s where things get interesting. The Liberals are solid -225 favourites to win the popular vote, but that doesn’t always translate to a majority government under Canada’s first-past-the-post system. For example, the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both 2019 and 2021 but failed to form government either time.

So if you’re eyeing a bet in this market, don’t confuse it with the “most seats” wager. The Liberals could rack up huge margins in urban centres while the Tories could win more ridings with smaller margins and end up forming a government despite a popular vote deficit.

Most Seats Odds

• Liberal Party: -275
• Conservatives: +200
• Bloc Québécois: +50000
• New Democratic Party: +20000
• Green Party: +20000

The “most seats” market is usually the most reliable indicator of who’s likely to form government. Right now, the Liberals are the heavy favourites at -275, suggesting about a 73.3% implied probability. But with Poilievre’s messaging resonating in rural ridings, and with Carney still relatively new to the political spotlight, there’s room for this to tighten.

If you’re bullish on the Conservatives stealing key battlegrounds in Ontario and B.C., +200 on them to win the most seats could be one of the best values on the board. Just remember: this market doesn’t care how they win, just how many they win.

Second Most Seats Odds

• Conservatives: -275
• Liberal Party: +200
• Bloc Québécois: +2000
• New Democratic Party: +6600
• Green Party: +10000
• People’s Party of Canada: +10000

If you think the Liberals might nosedive under Carney’s leadership or that the right-leaning vote could consolidate behind the Conservatives, the +200 on the Grits to finish second in seat count is at least worth a glance.

Otherwise, this is likely a “don’t overthink it” market. Barring a complete collapse, it’s hard to imagine any party other than the Liberals or Conservatives cracking the top two.

What’s Driving the Market?

Several key factors are shaping this election—and these odds:

• Mark Carney’s Entry: The former central banker is being marketed as a steady, economic hand amid global turbulence. His emergence has clearly energized Liberal support in urban and suburban areas.
• Trump’s Shadow: With Donald Trump back in the White House, trade and cross-border relations have jumped to the top of the agenda. Carney is seen as someone who can go toe-to-toe with Trump on the global stage which gives him an edge with centrists.
• Cost of Living & Inflation: Voters are frustrated. The party seen as most competent on affordability and housing will likely sway swing voters, especially in the 905 belt.
• Regional Volatility: The Bloc Québécois is holding firm in Quebec, but unlikely to grow. Meanwhile, the NDP is struggling to expand its base beyond its traditional strongholds.

The 2025 federal election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in Canadian history and the betting markets reflect that.

While the Liberals are clear favourites in most categories, there’s real room for volatility. If you think the Conservative surge is for real, or that Carney’s shine will fade under pressure, there’s solid value on the right. And if you believe in chaos? There’s always that sweet +50000 ticket on the PPC.

Just remember that Canadian elections often defy expectations, and no outcome is guaranteed. Keep an eye on polling shifts over the next two weeks, and consider how each party’s vote efficiency might impact your bet.

How to Bet on the Canadian Election

Looking to get deeper into election betting strategy? Check out our Canadian Election Betting Guide for tips, insights, and everything you need to make smart wagers before April 28.