Packers vs. Bears Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
Green Bay dropped a 24-14 decision against the Detroit Lions last time out, but they should be well rested after last week’s bye. Chicago has lost three straight games, but last week’s 19-3 home loss against a bad New England Patriots team has to be a low point for the season.
The Packers opened as six-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 42.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Few divisional rivalries have been as lopsided as Green Bay’s dominance against Chicago over the last five years. In the NFL it’s usually hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in a season, so it’s almost shocking to realize the Packers are 10-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games against the Bears.
If there’s one positive to look at for Chicago this week, it’s their home vs. road splits. The Bears have lost all four road games in 2024, but they’re actually a solid 4-1 SU at home. Green Bay has been consistent wherever they play, recording three wins each at home and on the road.
Neither team has been a great cover option. The Bears are 4-4-1 ATS, while the Packers are 4-5 ATS. Obviously, Green Bay has dominated this rivalry, but Chicago’s home record suggests they have a chance to keep this game within a touchdown.
Green Bay Packers
Losing to Detroit two weeks ago likely cost the Packers any shot at winning the NFC North, but they should have a good chance to claim a wild card spot. Quarterback Jordan Love shook off a groin injury he suffered in the lead up to the Lions game, finishing with 273 yards, although he finished with no passing TDs and one interception for the second consecutive game. Josh Jacobs rushed for 95 yards and Jayden Reed finished with 113 receiving yards.
One thing to look for this week is Green Bay winning the turnover battle. The Packers have generated the second-most turnovers in the NFL this season (19) and Xavier McKinney is tied for the lead in interceptions (six). You should also circle Jacobs, up front. Jacobs is fourth in total rushing yards (762), averaging 88.4 rushing yards per game, and he’s put up 222 rushing yards over his last two games alone.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback Caleb Williams has shown flashes of the potential that led him to being pick first overall in this year’s draft, but none of that potential was on display in last week’s loss to a terrible Patriots team. Williams completed just 16 of 30 pass attempts for 120 yards, failing to throw a TD pass for the third straight game. The rookie was sacked nine times against a New England defence that entered the game with just 16 sacks on the season.
The Bears are a mess on offence. Williams has failed to throw a TD pass in five of nine games this season and the team has gone 23 straight drives without an offensive touchdown, the second-longest streak in a season since 2005. A banged up offensive line could be a major factor. Starting tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright along with backup Kiran Amegadjie missed last week’s game, while guard Teven Jenkins was hurt against the Pats. Bottom line, keep an eye on Chicago’s injury report closer to Sunday.
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