Vikings vs. Packers Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
The Green Bay Packers have managed to stay afloat in the absence of star quarterback Jordan Love, improving to 2-1 with last week’s 30-14 win in Tennessee. The Vikings, meanwhile, are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2016 after routing Houston 34-7 at home last week.
Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Even though the majority of early betting action favours the Vikings, the line and total haven’t moved because of the possibility of Love’s return. This is definitely a game to monitor as the spread could move significantly in either direction when Love is confirmed in or out of the lineup.
These teams split the season series for the third straight year in 2023, with the road team winning and covering each game. With the Lions looking like a lock to win the division, this year’s season series against Minnesota and Green Bay could be the difference between making the playoffs or falling short for either team.
Minnesota has been great for bettors this year, going 3-0 both straight and against the spread while hitting the Over three times. They are also perfectly comfortable being an underdog as they are 6-2-1 ATS when not favoured to win.
The Pack are 2-1 ATS in 2024, covering in their last two games, and they’ve hit the Over twice. They’ve been very profitable at home, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Lambeau Field.
Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold continued his hot start to the season last week, throwing for a career-high four touchdowns and 181 yards. The former first-round draft pick has resurrected his career in Minnesota, passing for 657 yards, eight TDs and just two interceptions in three games. Former Packer Aaron Jones and receiver Justin Jefferson have also been big pieces of the offence. Jones finished with 148 total yards and a TD last week, while Jefferson put up a team-high 81 receiving yards and a TD. Jones ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards (228) and Jefferson ranks fourth in receiving yards (273).
This could be a reality-check game for the Vikings. While they rank fifth in rushing success rate (47.9 per cent) they’ve faced three of the worst rushing defences in the league in the Giants, Texans and 49ers. And as good as Darnold has been, you can’t let this year’s three-game stretch wipe out your memory of his first six terrible NFL seasons. Not to mention, Matt LaFleur has owned the NFC North, going 22-8 SU in divisional play since taking over as Packers head coach in 2019.
Green Bay Packers
Last week, Malik Willis got some sweet revenge against the Titans team that traded him in late August. Willis threw for 202 yards and a TD and also led Green Bay with 73 rushing yards while adding another score on the ground. The 25-year-old has thrived in two starts under LaFleur, completing 73.5 per cent of his pass attempts and throwing for two TDs and no interceptions. He’s also added 114 rushing yards.
Willis has been great, but the only question that matters in this game is the status of Love, who suffered a knee injury in the season-opener. Love has been limited at practice and LaFleur will likely leave him listed as a game-time decision regardless of when they decide he can play or not. The spread makes it seem like he’ll play, but it’s fair to wonder how hampered he’ll be with his knee.
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