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Edgar Chaput
Grand Canyon (12) vs. Saint Mary’s (5) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Relative newcomers to March Madness Grand Canyon look to write an exciting new chapter in their program’s history, even if it means only winning a game. Most of their NCAA tournament history is entrenched in Division II basketball. The Lopes ended their season in the WAC conference with an 89-74 win over UT Arlington in the final. Saint Mary’s pulled off a thrilling feat in the WCC, downing usual heavyweights Gonzaga, 69-60.
Our March Madness odds favour the Gaels, pegging Saint Mary’s at -5.5.
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
There isn’t much history shared between these WAC and WCC sides. Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon met once in March 2016, with the Gaels taking it 74-63.
Up until very recently, the Lopes contended in Division II basketball, which is the level at which most of their tournament experience stems from. That’s not to say they’ve never danced at March Madness, but 2024 only marks the school’s third participation. Both 2021 and 2022 concluded swiftly with first-round exits in games that were not especially close. Betters should take note that the Lopes are riding a high against the spread, having covered five straight games (overall record being 16-13-1). Not once was Grand Canyon an underdog this season, making this unchartered territory.
Saint Mary’s is a more regular fixture in March Madness, although they haven’t attained much success. Their best performances were in 2010 when they played the Sweet Sixteen and 1959 when they reached the Elite Eight. Yes, 1959. That said, this is the fourth time in five seasons they get to the big show (we’re obviously not including 2020). The Gaels got back to covering spreads at just the right time, taking care of both recent playoff games to improve the ATS record to 16-13. Overall the team is 8-2 ATS in its last 10.
Grand Canyon Antelopes (12)
Grand Canyon enters this game as a big fish coming from a relatively small pond. They’re the 12th seed despite strolling through the WAC in 2023-24. Even within the division, they finished a superb 17-3.
Their very good stats will certainly be put to the test in March Madness. The Lopes sport a decent offence, tallying an average of 79.8, which puts them first in the WAC. By the same token, they had a lockdown defence that only conceded 66.9 points a night and held opposing teams to just 40.5 shooting efficiency. Guard Tyron Grant-Foster is the star of the show, leading the side in plenty of major categories, from points (19.8), steals (1.7), and blocks (1.4). Gabe McGlothan is the rebounder of the group, corralling 7.3, and adding 13.0 points of his own. They don’t have a great playmaker, however. Ray Harrison leads in assists but with only 3.9. As a unit, they only accomplish 12.4 per game.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (5)
Not many would have guessed that the Gaels would end up as WCC champions this season. Granted, Saint Mary’s had the best record in the conference at 15-1, but Gonzaga had dominated for four years.
They accomplished the task primarily through defence. Opponents only mustered 58.7 points against them all season, an impressively low figure. They truly shut down opponents, not even allowing 40 per cent field goal efficiency (39.5, to be precise). They need to be that good on the defensive because the offence isn’t much to write home about, averaging 74.2, very middle-of-the-pack. Two players average over a steal per game, Augustas Marciulionis (1.5) and Joshua Jefferson (1.2). Marciulionis also leads in assists with 5.2. Aidan Mahaney is the top scorer with 13.9, and Mitchell Saxen grabs the most rebounds with 7.5.