Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Thompkins
On Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies (51-41) play the second game of their mid-week series against the Cincinnati Reds (41-49) at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
The Phillies snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 4-1 win over the Reds, and they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games after a hot streak in which they won six of seven. They are still just two games behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL East lead. Meanwhile, the Reds have sunk to the bottom of the NL Central, losing seven of their last nine.
This game promises to be a good one, so let’s predict a winner and break down the action.
Cincinnati is a -145 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 9.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
We know the Phillies can mash and the Reds have been underwhelming as an offence this season, so it’s no surprise that the Unders are the play here with both teams. For the Phillies, the Under has hit in five of the last six games. For the Reds, the Under on the run total has hit in seven of the last nine games. One thing possibly pushing back on this is that the Phillies don’t have a starter named for Tuesday, while the Reds counter with Chase Burns. The Reds’ runline and the Under seem like the plays.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been a very top-heavy team this season, and when their stars are on, they’re nearly unbeatable. Everything starts with their veteran trio at the top of the order, with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Turner has been greatly disappointing with his worst season as a professional, but he’s hitting his way out of it, bringing his average from .219 to .240 over the last three weeks. Schwarber has been hitting Schwarbombs all season, leading baseball with 31 home runs and a nearly top-20 OPS (.940) in MLB. With Schwarber and Harper (.884 OPS, 20 HR, 57 RBI) plus All-Star Brandon Marsh (.305, 15 HR, 46 RBI, .844 OPS) having a career year, the Phillies can slug with the best of them.
But when you add the pitching trio of Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Zack Wheeler? You have two All-Stars (should be three with Wheeler) and one of the best pitchers in baseball that can go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in a playoff series, should they get there.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are clearly a team trying to find an identity here, with a team that’s young and inexperienced. They’re bottom-seven in team OPS and bottom-eight in team ERA this season, so clearly, it’s no surprise they’re in the NL Central cellar. That said, there are definitely building blocks with Elly De La Cruz (.813 OPS, 13 HR, 41 RBI) being one of the most exciting players in baseball and Sal Stewart (17 HR, 61 RBI) on pace for 30 HR and NL Rookie of the Year buzz. Chase Burns (10-1, 2.40 ERA) has been excellent this season as the ace of the starting rotation, as Hunter Greene’s debut is imminent for Cincinnati. The Reds have the building blocks, but need to solidify that in the next season or two if they want to be a serious contender in the NL Central.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Phillies vs. Reds?
At the time of this writing, the Phillies need a starting pitcher and haven’t announced one for this game. Philadelphia has been running with a four-man rotation of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola since sending down top prospect Andrew Painter.
However, the Reds do have their starter, and it’s Chase Burns, who has been unreal this season. He’s sporting a pristine 2.40 ERA and a 10-1 record in 17 starts this season. With Burns pitching and the volatility that comes with either bringing up a starter from AAA Lehigh Valley or using an opener for Philadelphia, we’re going to take Cincinnati at home.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (+151)
PHI
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