UFC 329 McGregor vs. Holloway 2: Oddsmakers think Conor McGregor will need a KO win

The main event of UFC 329 on Saturday is headlined by a fight nearly 13 years in the making as Conor MCGregor and Max Holloway face off for the second time.

McGregor won the first match in by unanimous decision in August 2013, but so much has changed in the ensuing decade+ with each fighter winning and losing championship belts in that time.

These are two very different opponents from the first head-to-head as McGregor has’t stepped foot in the octagon in five years, while Holloway has alternated wins and losses over his last four fights.

Because of the long layoff, McGregor entered fight week as a +190 underdog on the MMA odds, while Holloway is listed at -225.

So, what is McGregor’s best path to victory? Let’s get into it.

Method of victory

While McGregor is listed as an underdog, oddsmakers have his favoured path to victory pegged as a knockout at +250.

McGregor still holds the type of power that earned him a 22-6 career record with 19 knockout wins. “Notorious” has a history as a fast starter, which is why McGregor winning by decision (+1200) or submission (+2500) are long shots. Keep in mind, the Irishman has only record two career wins via decision and just one by submission.

Holloway, however, remains active with eight fights (5-3) since McGregor last competed. The favoured method of victory for “Blessed” is also knockout (-135), while he is a +1000 long shot to earn a submission.

Line movement

The line has moved significantly from when it opened to fight week. McGregor was originally a +350 underdog, while Holloway was -550.

That gap says oddsmakers are clearly skeptical of what McGregor, who suffered TKO losses in his last two fights, will look like after a half-decade layoff.

Meanwhile, Holloway has stayed very active and kept a winning record. You can see a deeper breakdown into the line movement for McGregor vs. Holloway 2 here.

McGregor path to victory

The key question for McGregor isn’t whether he has knockout power, because we know he does. The question now is, can he land the type of clean, early, shots needed to wear down a fighter like Holloway, who is known for his durability and staying power?

McGregor has 14 first-round finishes in his career, including a 40-second TKO over Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in his last win in January 2020.

If “Notorious” is going to win this fight, it will be early.

Holloway path to victory

It’s a totally different strategy for Holloway, who has more career wins by decision (13) than by knockout (12). Holloway has built his career on durability and toughness, suffering only one knockout loss in 36 fights.

However, oddsmakers seem to be simply be weighing the recent form between these fighters. When it comes down to it, Holloway has continued to fight and win, while McGregor hasn’t competed in five years.

McGregor vs. Holloway 2

It’s pretty simple when you look at this fight from oddsmakers’ perspective. McGregor is +250 to record a knockout win because he holds power, accuracy and he has a clear record of quick finishes. But, just because McGregor can win by KO, doesn’t mean it’s likely.

Even with the line noticeably moving in McGregor’s direction, Holloway remains the clear favourite because of his durability and recent form.

Overall, I suspect the line is only moving in McGregor’s direction because he has a much bigger fanbase, not because bettors think he’ll actually win.