Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw: UFC 280 Odds, Prediction

The first of two titles fights on the UFC 280 card will feature bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling facing No. 2 contender and former bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw in the co-main event.

Sterling is a -175 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Dillashaw is a +135 underdog.

Aljamain Sterling UFC 280 Odds

Sterling is 21-3 in a professional MMA career that began in 2011.  Since debuting in the UFC in 2014, the 33-year-old has gone 13-3 in the Octagon and he enters Saturday riding a seven-fight win streak.  He’s accumulated 10 career victories by decision, eight by submission, two by knockout and one by disqualification.  Sterling has defeated notable names like Pedro Munhoz, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan.

“Funk Master” won the bantamweight championship at UFC 259 in March 2021 against Yan.  Yan was disqualified from the fight because of an intentional illegal knee in the fourth round, making Sterling the first fighter in UFC history to win a championship by disqualification.  The rematch was a tight fight, with Sterling eventually winning by split decision to successfully defend his belt for the first time.

Sterling is a dangerous grappler who can close out fights quickly if he gets on an opponent’s back.  He’s also deceptively stronger and more physical than most people realize and he’ll have a four-inch reach advantage over Dillashaw.  Sterling averages 4.56 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy.  He also averages 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes with 21 per cent accuracy.  Getting this fight to the ground is key for Sterling.

T.J. Dillashaw UFC 280 Odds

Dillashaw is 17-4 since his professional MMA debut in 2010.  Like Sterling, Dillashaw is also 13-3 in the Octagon.  The 36-year-old has eight career wins by knockout, six by decision and three by submission.  Notable fighters he’s defeated include John Linker, Cody Garbrandt (twice) and Sandhagen.

Dillashaw actually held the bantamweight belt on two separate occasions.  He originally won the belt in 2014 and successfully defended it twice before losing to Dominick Cruz by split decision in 2016.  Dillashaw won the belt back with a second-round KO victory over Garbrandt at UFC 217 in November 2017 and successfully defended the belt with a first-round KO in the rematch at UFC 227 in August 2018.  He was later stripped of the belt after a failed drug test in March 2019.

Dillashaw is a former college wrestler, but he’s been known more as a striker in the UFC.  He averages 5.26 significant strikes per minute with 41 per cent accuracy.  He also averages 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy.  Dillashaw can rely on a solid wrestling background if this fight ends up on the ground, but his best strategy is likely to wear Sterling down with his striking ability.

UFC 280 Prediction: Sterling vs. Dillashaw

This is a grappler vs. striker fight, so regardless of who wins, it should be entertaining.  Dillashaw has proven he can bully opponents through three rounds, but he’s also shown he struggles to hang on in championship rounds, so it will be crucial for him to end this fight early.  Dillashaw wins by second-round KO/TKO.