Jordan Ramsay
September 15, 2022

Gennady Golovkin vs. Canelo Alvarez III: Boxing Odds, Prediction

One of the biggest fights of the boxing year is set to go down Saturday night in Las Vegas as Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin meet for a third time, with the undisputed super middleweight championship on the line. The original fight ended in a split decision draw in September 2017, while the rematch a year later was scored as a majority decision win for Alvarez.

Alvarez is a significant -440 favourite to win on the boxing odds, while Golovkin is a +293 underdog. The bout is scheduled for 12 rounds.

Winner

Canelo Alvarez -386
Draw +2000
Gennadiy Golovkin +256

Gennady Golovkin Boxing Odds

Golovkin enters this fight with a 42-1-1 record since his professional debut in 2006, which means the only two times he hasn’t won a fight in his career both came against Alvarez. “GGG” has 37 wins by knockout and five by decision. He is a two-time unified middleweight champion, holding the IBF title since 2019 and the WBA (Super) title since this past April. Previously, Golovkin held the unified WBA (Super), WBC and IBF titles between 2014 and 2018. He is also a two-time IBO middleweight champion, having held the title for a second time since 2019.

This is likely the last shot for the 40-year-old to defeat Alvarez as there is not expected to be a fourth fight. “GGG” was competitive in the first fight in 2017, especially in the later rounds, and many fans and media members actually thought he won before the draw was announced. The second fight in 2018 was also close, but resulted in a loss for Golovkin.

Golovkin relies heavily on a pressure style fight, but there are concerns for Saturday as he’s moving up weight classes for the first time in his career. He has an iron jaw and high level conditioning, but he’ll be facing an opponent he already lost to and who is still in his prime. Because of that, expect Golovkin to come out on the attack early and pressure hard. It’s crucial for Golovkin to sustain unrelenting pressure and get Alavarez on the ropes early before unloading big hooks and uppercuts to the body.

Canelo Alvarez Boxing Odds

Alvarez has hit the prime of his career and he comes into Saturday with a 57-2-2 record since 2005. The 32-year-old from Mexico has 37 career wins by knockout and five by decision. Alvarez has won multiple world titles in four weight classes from light middleweight to light heavyweight, including unified titles in three of those classes. He is also the first and only boxer in history to become the undisputed champion at super middleweight, having held the WBA (Super), WBC and Ring magazine titles since 2020 and the IBF and WBO titles since 2020.

It will be interesting to see where Alvarez’s head is at in this fight as he coming off his first loss in nine years after failing in his bid for the WBA (Super) light heavyweight title with a unanimous decision loss against Dmitry Bivol in May. Prior to that, Alavarez’s only career loss was a majority decision against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013.

Alvarez’s confidence may have taken a bit of a hit with his loss in May, but it was only a matter of time before he pushed too far out of his weight class. This is a perfect fight for Alvarez to get back in the win column. He’s the best he has ever been physically and the skillset he’s developed by jumping to higher weight classes has helped him become a better fighter in the four years since his last win against Golovkin. Alvarez was the aggressor the last time he fought Golovkin and it seemed to work to throw Golovkin off his game. I would expect a similar approach on Saturday.