Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves: UFC 277 Odds, Prediction

It’s a pair of unranked lightweights facing off on the UFC 277 preliminary card from Dallas on Saturday with Drew Dober challenging Rafael Alves. Dober is a -230 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Alves at +170.

Drew Dober -190
Rafael Alves +145

Drew Dober UFC 277 Odds

There is no official lightweight champion in the UFC right now and the 33-year-old Dober, from Nebraska but now living in Colorado, is not ranked. He is 24-11 in a career that started professionally in 2009 but was also a two-time amateur national champion in Muay Thai.

Dober ended a two-fight losing streak in March with a first-round TKO (knee and punches) over Terrance McKinney despite Dober being knocked down twice in the opening minute or so. Dober has fought in three decades in his career and has had two-fight losing skids in each of them.

The 5-foot-8 Dober’s fights average 7:53, and he’s a southpaw. He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minutes with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.23 with 52 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.80 per 15 minutes with 17 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 53 per cent.

Dober has 11 wins by KO/TKO, seven by decision and six via submission. Dober’s six knockout victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for fourth-most in divisional history. The majority of his losses (55 per cent) are via decision. For a method of victory Saturday, Dober by KO/TKO/DQ is +150, by decision at +225 and by submission +1600.

Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds

The 31-year-old Alves, from Brazil, is 20-10 and also unranked as a lightweight. He has been fighting professionally since 2007 but only in the UFC since 2020. He debuted by winning the Contender Series over Alejandro Flores Garcia, lost to Damir Ismagulov and was last in the Octagon in November, beating Marc Diakiese by first-round submission (guillotine choke).

“The Turn” stands 5-foot-8 like Dober but will be at a two-inch reach disadvantage. Alves’ fights average 8:14. He lands 2.10 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.56 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is literally 0.00 per 15 minutes with zero per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 60 per cent.

Alves has eight wins by submission, seven by KO/TKO and five by decision. Most of his losses – 60 per cent – are by submission. For Saturday, Alves winning by submission is +350, by decision +600 and by KO/TKO/DQ +800. A draw is +500.

The over-under rounds is 2.5 with the under a -165 favorite. That it goes the full three rounds is +150 with no at -200.