2021 BMW Championship: FedEx Cup Playoffs, PGA Tour Betting Odds

It’s the penultimate event of the 2020-21 PGA Tour regular season this week and the second of three FedExCup playoff tournaments as the Top 70 in points (minus one) compete at the BMW Championship. Jon Rahm is favoured to win on the PGA golf odds.

Just a reminder that the Top 125 in points entering last week’s Northern Trust were whittled down to a Top 70 for this week – and there will be no cut. Only the Top 30 in points after the BMW Championship will qualify for the season-ending Tour Championship. It will be a quick turnaround for those 70 who advanced as the Northern Trust was pushed to a Monday finish due to weather.

PGA Championship winner Phil Mickelson qualified for the BMW Championship right at No. 70 in the points and is +15000 this week. Matthew Wolff was the unlucky No. 71. Some other guys who didn’t make the Top 70: Ian Poulter, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Canadians Roger Sloan (96) and Adam Hadwin (103). A total of six guys who were outside the Top 70 jumped in at the Northern Trust and thus six fell out.

The BMW Championship has been around since 2007, which is when the FedExCup playoffs originated. One issue with handicapping this year is the event is being held for the first time at Caves Valley Golf Club, a par 72 at around 7,540 yards located in Owings Mills, Maryland. It had never hosted a PGA Tour event basically because it wasn’t long enough but did a couple of senior tournaments. This track has been extended fairly recently as the PGA Tour returns to the Baltimore area for the first time since 1964. The 2022 event will be held in Delaware.

Last year, Olympia Fields outside Chicago hosted the BMW Championship and Spain’s Rahm won at 4-under 276 in a playoff over Dustin Johnson. It was a thrilling finish as DJ drained a 45-foot birdie putt on his 72nd hole to force the playoff, and then Rahm made a 65-footer on the first playoff hole to win. It’s going to take a lot more under par to win this year.

It is believed that all of the Top 70 players are planning to compete other than Patrick Reed, who is dealing with pneumonia. He’s 26th in points, so he could fall out of the Top 30 this week.

2021 BMW Championship Golf Betting Odds

World No. 1 Jon Rahm is the +600 favourite. He finished third at the Northern Trust on Monday at 18 under, two out of a playoff between Tony Finau (who won) and Cameron Smith. Rahm’s worst showing in four BMW Championships is T24 and as noted above, he is the defending champion.

Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are +1600. Morikawa shockingly missed the cut at the Northern Trust, but maybe that’s not such a bad thing considering the short turnaround. His best finish in the BMW Championship is T20. Schauffele finished T16 on Monday and his best result in this event is T3.

Tony Finau leads the points standings now and is +2800 to win back-to-back weeks following his victory at the Northern Trust. He has been Top 10 at this event four straight years. Cameron Smith, who lost to Finau in the playoff Monday, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay are all +2000 this week.

Canada’s Corey Conners finished T8 at the Northern Trust and is 20th in points. He’s +5000 this week. His best result in the BMW is T7. Mackenzie Hughes was T27 Monday and is +15000 to win here. Hughes finished T10 last year and made a clutch par putt on his 72nd hole to qualify for the Tour Championship. No Canadian has won this event.

2021 BMW Championship Golf Predictions

Take Rahm and Morikawa for Top 10s, but the winner at +2000 is Justin Thomas. He was T4 on Monday, his best finish since winning the Players Championship. Thomas won this event (again, different course) in 2019.