Remember when the Boston Celtics were favored to win the Eastern Conference? The team that pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games last season without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward was surely going to be the team to beat now that they were back, right?

Reality proved to be very different for Boston, who struggled mightily this season and finished as the fourth seed. This team still has the talent to win the East but they haven’t looked anything like a competent challenger this season. Can they flip the switch?

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Indiana produced a 19-22 record as the visiting team in the regular season. One of those wins came against Boston on Nov. 3, when the Pacers squeezed out a 102-101 victory. Indiana is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven Conference Quarterfinals games. They have overachieved in the playoffs under Nate McMillan

Meanwhile, the Celtics went 28-13 at TD Garden in the regular season. After dropping the opening game between them during the regular season at home, Boston won the next three games versus Indiana to take the season series 3-1. The Celtics are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games played on three or more days of rest.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were one of the league’s early surprises as they were 32-15 at one point. However, they lost All-Star Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury and that changed their trajectory. They still fought valiantly to be the fifth seed but were just 16-19 down the stretch.

The Pacers have to feel confident that they have what it takes to upset the Celtics in the first round. After all, Indiana almost took down LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in last year’s playoffs, also pushing them to seven games. However, the loss of Oladipo will hurt. Indiana has survived without him thanks in large part to their solid defence, which led the league in points allowed per game. Boston really labored on offence at times, so the Pacers are capable of frustrating them.

The Pacers score by committee and scoring by committee these days after losing Oladipo’s 18.8 points per game. Bojan Bogdanovic (18.0), Domatas Sabonis (14.1) and Myles Turner (13.3) have to lead the way.

There’s no question the Celtics are more talented but the Pacers have better chemistry. They are more than capable of covering or springing the upset here in Game 1.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are dealing with a significant injury of their own following the loss of Marcus Smart for the opening round. Smart was the team’s best perimeter defender, which is something they will miss against Indiana. The good news is that Oladipo is out for Indiana, which takes some of the pressure off of Kyrie Irving and company at the defensive end of the floor. Meanwhile, Boston seemed to figure out the best approach to winning games down the stretch when it went 5-1 including a pair of wins over the Pacers. Irving will be important, but the Celtics also need more out of Gordon Hayward, who averaged 16.9 points per game over his last seven contests. Hayward isn’t the player he was before last year’s gruesome leg injury but he still has more to give.

Boston will probably make this more interesting than necessary but they have played well against the Pacers this season. They should win, at the very least, even if they don’t cover.

PACERS

Away

92

CELTICS

Home

95

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