Borussia Dortmund vs. Atalanta Prediction: UEFA Champions League Playoff Preview

Prepare for the second year of the UEFA Champions League knockout stage, as teams who finished in the eighth to 24th spot will go head to head this week and next. One of the best matches pits Borussia Dortmund against Atalanta in an exciting two-leg fixture.

Two of the biggest clubs in German and Italian football feature in this matchup, as Dortmund take the first leg match at home stadium Signal Iduna Park Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET.  Die Schwarzgelben were runners-up in the final two years ago and do have the experience of going the distance, while Atalanta won their first-ever Europa League trophy that same year, putting this matchup at quite high stakes.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Atalanta UEFA Champions League playoff round odds and betting trend

Atalanta and Dortmund butt-heads for the third time in history, after the Germans knocked out their opponents 4-3 on aggregate in the Europa League intermediate stage. Historically, La Dea have never beaten the German side, but came close in a 1-1 draw in their most recent fixture against them in February 2018.

Neither side is projected to win the entire Champions League (+7000), but nothing is impossible. Dortmund are the favourites Tuesday afternoon, but not by much, priced at +100 on the three-way moneyline compared to Atalanta at +270. A draw is set for +260 on the Champions League odds, and is always possible given the depth and experience of both squads. 

Atalanta

While they’re sixth in Serie A, La Dea are not new to Champions League football, and have gone undefeated for the last four straight games in all competitions. In those last four, they’ve scored seven goals, with a notable Coppa Italia quarterfinals win 3-0 against Juventus. The Italian side continued their impressive February streak with 2-1 and 2-0 victories in their most recent Serie A matches.

Atlanta’s Nikola Krstovic and Gianluca Scammacca are the team’s most likely goalscorers at +175, after combining for a total of 13 goals in Serie A and three in the Champions League. A solid defence for most of this year has kept them on top in many games, with January seeing four shutout victories, followed up by three in February, and they’ve only allowed one goal throughout this month.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund is the perfect test against La Dea, as the Black and Yellows hold second place in the Bundesliga behind only Bayern. They enter a three-game winning streak after losing 2-0 to Inter in the last round of group stage play in the Champions League. They’ve netted nine goals so far this month, including a 4-0 shutout win in the Bundesliga over Mainz with Serhou Guirassy being the catalyst for success with a first-half brace.

Guirassy is the matchup’s highest probable goalscorer at +100 anytime, recording 11 goals in his domestic league campaign in addition to three in the Champions League. Teammates Julian Brandt (+275) and Felix Nmecha (+375) also boast three goals apiece and are integral in controlling the game in the midfield. Dortmund will certainly have the edge in creating chances, but it may be up to Guirassy for the finishing touch against the patient Atalanta back line. 

UEFA Champions League playoff round prediction: Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs. Atalanta?

Playing at the Signal Iduna Park is never easy for any opposition, with Dortmund losing only two of their last 10 home games to tough competition, including Leverkusen and Inter Milan. Inter was the only opponent to shut out the Yellow and Blacks at home throughout the entire season. Even with that scoreless result, Dortmund still put 13 past opponents in their last five home games, and will unquestionably score at least one, likely two, considering the last time they scored just one at home was October 2025.

Atlanta will put up a valiant fight and may even find the back of the net, but it will presumably be less than the offensive-oriented German side with Guirrassy at the helm. A simple breakthrough for Dortmund will put immense pressure on the Italians, who may find it difficult to crawl back at an away deficit. 

All things considered, this one will end 2-1, but Die Schwarzgelben will ultimately pull through.