NHL Odds: Canadian teams on track to miss playoffs at historic rate

Canada’s Stanley Cup drought is officially in serious jeopardy of reaching 33 years.

With every team in the NHL having played at least 21 games, we have a good idea of the contenders and pretenders and it doesn’t look good for teams north of the border. As of Nov. 25, six of seven Canadian NHL teams sit outside of a playoff spot, with only Ottawa poised for postseason hockey.

Here’s what you need to know.

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Eastern Conference

Posting an 11-7-4 record through 22 games, the Ottawa Senators currently sit third in the Atlantic Division with 26 points. The Sens are -170 to make the playoffs, which is an implied probability of 63 per cent. However, it’s not so rosy for the rest of the country.

The Montreal Canadiens are in a five-way tie, one point back of Ottawa and one point out of the second wild-card spot. The East standings are so jam-packed that only six points separate 14th place from first place. The Habs are -135 to make the playoffs, a 57.4 per cent probability.

Unfortunately, it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs that have the biggest mountain to climb as they are dead last in the Eastern Conference with 21 points. For context, the Leafs haven’t been last in the Eastern Conference since the 2015-16 season when they finished with the worst record in the NHL and recorded the most losses in franchise history with 53. Toronto is listed as more likely to miss the playoffs (-180) than make it (+150).

Western Conference

The Western Conference standings are a little more spread out. The Edmonton Oilers are the best Western Canadian team at the moment, sitting at 25 points. That puts the Oilers two points out of the second wild-card spot and three points out of third in the Pacific Division. Oddsmakers still give the Oil the best shot among Canadian teams of making the playoffs at -500.

The Winnipeg Jets are right behind Edmonton in the standings with 24 points. The Jets trail Minnesota by four points for third in the Central Division, but Winnipeg has three games in-hand. They’re listed at -165 to make the playoffs.

The Vancouver Canucks are a dismal 14th in the Western Conference with 20 points. Management seems to see the writing on the wall as they are reportedly listening to offers on veteran players. The Canucks are +320 to make the playoffs and -425 to miss.

Rounding out the Canadian teams is the Calgary Flames, who are second-last in the Western Conference with 19 points despite playing a league-high 24 games. Calgary was never expected to be a playoff team, so it’s not surprising they have the worst postseason odds of any Canadian team at +1100 to make the playoffs and -2500 to miss.

Verdict

The table above shows us that despite only one Canadian team (Ottawa) currently holding a playoff spot, oddsmakers are more optimistic, with four teams (Edmonton, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Montreal) favoured to make the postseason.

History agrees with the oddsmakers as it’s incredibly rare for Canadian teams to entirely miss out of playoffs. In fact, it’s only happened twice in NHL history, in 1970 and 2016. At least two Canadian teams have made the playoffs in each of the last nine years.