UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
Dern opened as a -135 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Godinez opened as a +110 underdog.
Mackenzie Dern UFC Fight Night Odds
Zhang Weili is the current UFC strawweight champion with the Brazilian American 31-year-old Dern ranked No. 7 in the division with a career MMA record 13-5. She is a former ADCC Submission Fighting world champion.
Dern, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, enters off her fourth loss in the past six bouts, a unanimous decision defeat to Amanda Lemos (currently ranked as the No. 5 strawweight) at UFC 298 in February as a replacement for Tatiana Suarez on about a month’s notice. That Dern even made it to the judges was impressive as she injured her leg in Round 1 and it began swelling quickly. In Round 2, Lemos continued to have success in space and referee Mike Beltran nearly stopped the fight, but Dern made it through and was very aggressive in Round 3. She lost by scores of 29-28, 29-28 and 29-28.
The two wins for Dern in that six-fight span were a unanimous decision over Angela Hill in May 2023 and a split decision against Tecia Pennington in April 2022. Dern has four career losses via the judges and one by KO/TKO. She has yet to win by KO/TKO with seven by submission and six by decision.
Dern winning by points is +235 for Saturday, followed by submission (+250) and KO/TKO/DQ (+1000) with a draw at +5000. That she wins in Round 1 by any method is +375. The over-under for the scheduled three-rounder is 2.5 rounds and that it goes the distance is -200 with no at +160. That it goes to a split decision is +275 with no at -350.
The 5-foot-4 Dern has a reach of 63 inches and her bouts average 13:13. She lands 3.31 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.09 with 51 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 0.79 per 15 minutes with 15 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 28 per cent. Dern is primarily a grappler who is at her best dragging opponents to the canvas.
Her four submission victories in UFC strawweight competition are the most in divisional history and the second-most of any female in company history.
Loopy Godinez UFC Fight Night Odds
The 30-year-old Godinez, who is a dual citizen of Mexico and Canada, is ranked No. 10 in the women’s strawweight division with a career mark of 12-4. Her sister Ana Godinez is representing Team Canada in the Paris Olympics at 62kg in women’s freestyle wrestling.
Loopy (real first name is Lupita) won the strawweight title in a few other organizations ahead of her UFC debut in April 2021 at 5-0 career. She then promptly lost to Jessica Penne by split decision. In 2023,
Godinez became the first woman to win four fights in the UFC in a calendar year but that streak ended this past March when she lost to Virna Jandiroba by unanimous decision by scores of 29-28, 29-28 and 30-27.
The 5-foot-2 Godinez has a reach of 61 inches and her fights average 13:27. She lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.58 with 63 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 3.04 per 15 minutes with 46 per cent defence, and her takedown defence is 84 per cent.
Godinez lands 60.5 per cent of her takedown attempts in UFC strawweight competition only, the second-best rate in divisional history behind Tatiana Suarez (65.8 per cent). Godinez has landed 26 takedowns in UFC strawweight competition, the third-most in divisional history.
All four of Godinez’s losses are via the judges, while nine wins are by decision, two by submission and one by KO/TKO. For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by decision at +125, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +1300 and submission +2000. That either fighter wins by submission, which seems quite possible considering their styles, is +230.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
We like going the distance as the top wager here but will take Godinez by decision in a minor upset.
