Bills vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a big win at home over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Houston Texans survived a scare at home from the lowly Tennessee Titans. Now, these two defending division champs match up in Houston on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen was unstoppable against the Buccaneers in a 44-32 triumph. He accounted for six total touchdowns while throwing for 317 yards to keep the Bills within 1.5 games of AFC East leader New England.
Backup quarterback Davis Mills threw for 274 yards and a touchdown while Matthew Wright made three field goals, including a 35-yard winner as time expired, in Houston’s 16-13 victory. The win was the Texans’ second straight and fifth in seven games as coach DeMeco Ryans’ squad continues the road back from an 0-3 start.
Buffalo is a 5.5-point favourite on the NFL odds, with the total set at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Bills are 2-2 against the spread on the road. Buffalo has won eight straight Thursday Night Football games. Houston has won two straight on Thursday night as home underdogs. The Texans are 3-2 against the spread this season at home. The Under has cashed in five straight meetings between these two squads.
Look at some Texans running back player props this week against Buffalo’s 31st-ranked run defence, which is allowing 153 yards on the ground per game.
Woody Marks has -115 odds to rush for more than 58.5 yards, something he has done twice in the past four games. And teammate Nick Chubb is -118 to rush for more than 20.5 yards, something he has done in three of his past four games.
Buffalo Bills
Allen reminded everyone exactly why he is the reigning MVP. He threw for three touchdowns and rushed for 40 yards and three scores last week. That second stat is important, as James Cook, the NFL’s second-leading rusher, is stalling a bit. He has just 101 yards on 29 carries over the past two games.
Gabe Davis and Mecole Hardman made their season debuts against Tampa Bay. Allen needs more help from the wideout position, and those two could provide it, although Hardman did leave the game with an injury.
The team’s run defence still stinks. The Bills have surrendered a league-worst 17 rushing touchdowns and gave up 145 rushing yards to the Buccaneers… before contact. Tampa Bay ran for 202 yards total, with an average of 5.2 yards per carry.
Houston Texans
Mills has kept Houston afloat since coming on for a concussed C.J. Stroud in an 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos three weeks ago. He has thrown for 566 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception in crucial AFC South division wins over Tennessee and the Jacksonville Jaguars. His presence and competence under centre remain crucial with Stroud’s status unclear at this time.
The Texans continue to rely on their elite, top-ranked defence. Houston leads the league in scoring allowed (16.3 PPG) and ranks third against both the rush and the pass. Danielle Hunter (nine sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (eight sacks) regularly impose their will.
This side of the ball is why Houston still has visions of a third straight division crown and playoff appearance.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Texans?
Since a 4-0 start, the Bills have sputtered, going 3-3 in their last six games. They’ll have a big win, like a 28-21 triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs, and follow it with a flat performance, like a 30-13 loss at the lowly Miami Dolphins.
This feels like another spot for history to repeat itself. A short week, on the road, against a defence that will be chomping at the bit. Look for Houston to not only cover, but win outright in a 21-17 upset.
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