Bills vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
Buffalo comes in with a 6-2 record, while the Dolphins are 2-7 and among the worst teams in the league. They have already squared off once this season, when Buffalo rolled to a 31-21 home victory in Week 3.
Thus continued the Bills’ recent dominance in this head-to-head matchup. They have won the last seven meetings and boast a 14-1 record in their latest 15. That’s right; the Dolphins have prevailed just once since the 2018 campaign.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Neither side has been productive against the spread of late. Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last six overall, and Miami is 6-9 ATS in its previous 15, dating back to the 2024 campaign. However, the Dolphins have covered in each of the past two head-to-head encounters. As for the Over/Under, the Over is 7-3 in Buffalo’s last 10 games and 4-2 in the past six head-to-head.
In addition to the more traditional NFL betting lines, the first-quarter spread is -2.5 in Buffalo’s favour, and the first-half spread is -4.5. On the prop-betting front, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is -210 to throw more than 1.5 touchdown passes. Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins is +135 to do the same.
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Buffalo Bills
Is this a letdown spot for the Bills after they picked up an enormous 28-21 win over the Chiefs this past weekend? Probably not! Buffalo owns one other signature victory this season – a 41-40 defeat of Baltimore back in Week 1. Head coach Sean McDermott’s squad promptly followed that up with three more wins. There is no reason to think the Bills will suddenly lose their sense of urgency, knowing they still have a lot of work to do if they want to overtake the Patriots in the AFC East and secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Buffalo should be able to do plenty of damage both through the air with Allen and on the ground with running back James Cook. Miami’s defence ranks No. 27 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.7) and No. 30 against the run (145.6 yards per game allowed on 5.0 yards per carry).
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel may have lost the locker room, but he has not lost his job – and he won’t lose it for at least the remainder of this season. Owner Stephen Ross made that announcement following last Thursday’s 28-6 loss to the Ravens. The only domino to fall on the heels of that result was the immediate exit of general manager Chris Grier.
This is a franchise in turmoil, not only off the field but also on it. The current problems are primarily on offence, as Miami has scored exactly six points in two of its last three outings (also in Week 7 against Cleveland). Tagovailoa has already thrown a ridiculous 11 interceptions this year, including seven in the past four contests.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Dolphins?
This matchup resulted in a 10-point margin earlier this season, when the Dolphins still had receiver Tyreek Hill (he has since been lost for the year with a torn ACL). The Bills would be even bigger favourites at home, of course. As single-digit favourites on the road, they have great value to win and cover. Let’s go with Bills 31, Dolphins 16.
BUF
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