Dream vs. Valkyries WNBA Finals Game 1 Betting Odds, Picks: Series hovering close to a pick’em

Someone is getting their first WNBA championship as the Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream begin their battle for the title Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.

Golden State has wasted little time making its mark. In just its second season, the expansion franchise finished 32-12 before knocking out Dallas and sweeping defending champion Las Vegas.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is back in the Finals for the first time since 2013. The Dream finished 30-14 and have won 10 consecutive games, including five straight in the playoffs.

Neither franchise has won a championship, but one will soon have a new banner to hang.

Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

Golden State is a 2.5-point home favourite at -150 on the moneyline for Game 1, while Atlanta is +125. The total is 154.5 points on the WNBA odds.

The Valkyries won all three regular-season meetings, holding Atlanta to an average of 74.7 points.

Golden State went 17-5 at home during the regular season, while Atlanta enters with a perfect 5-0 playoff record.

Two of their three meetings finished below Saturday’s total.

Atlanta Dream

The Dream have been doing plenty of winning, even without their leading regular-season scorer.

Allisha Gray injured her left hand during Game 1 of the semifinals against New York and missed the final two games. She underwent a minor procedure and remains day-to-day.

Atlanta hardly missed a beat.

Jordin Canada averaged 22.3 points against the Liberty, shooting 62.2 per cent from the field. DeWanna Bonner provided another spark, averaging 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds in the series.

Angel Reese has also made life miserable for opposing players around the basket. The Defensive Player of the Year led the league with 12.1 rebounds per game during the regular season.

Rhyne Howard provides another scoring threat, giving Atlanta plenty of ways to make trouble.

The Dream’s biggest challenge will be solving a Golden State defence that frustrated them throughout the regular season.

Gray’s potential return would help, but Atlanta has already demonstrated it can win without her.

Golden State Valkyries

The Valkyries apparently missed the memo that expansion teams are supposed to take years to become contenders.

Golden State has reached the Finals in its second season and its defence has been the driving force.

The Valkyries finished with the WNBA’s best defensive rating at 99.1 and have three All-Defensive selections in Gabby Williams, Veronica Burton and Kiah Stokes.

Williams has also stepped up offensively, averaging 22.7 points during the playoffs.

Golden State’s depth is another advantage. The Valkyries led the league in bench scoring during the regular season, averaging 35.9 points.

Coach Natalie Nakase has several options when the starters need a break, allowing Golden State to maintain its defensive pressure.

The Valkyries also have the confidence that comes from beating Atlanta three times already.

WNBA Prediction: Who will win Dream vs. Valkyries?

Atlanta has the momentum, but Golden State has the matchup advantage.

The Valkyries have repeatedly slowed the Dream’s offence, and Gray’s uncertain availability makes Atlanta’s task even tougher.

Reese should keep the rebounding battle competitive, while Canada and Howard provide enough scoring to make this interesting.

However, Golden State’s defence, depth and home-court advantage should be enough to secure the opening victory.

Best bet: Take Golden State -2.5.

Score prediction: Golden State 79-74 Atlanta