Cowboys vs. Packers Week 6 SNF Betting Odds, Prediction and Picks: Green Bay Favoured After Line Flip
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Kevin Tompkins
Two of the NFC’s most storied franchises meet at Lambeau Field as the 2-3 Dallas Cowboys, fresh off a 24-16 Thursday night loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, visit the 3-2 Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 6.
Dallas may be a high-flying offence, but a defence that has yet to record an interception leaves very little margin for error. As for Green Bay, they went 2-2 and stumbled through their first four games before routing the Chicago Bears 31-7 at home, playing their best game of the young season.
We can’t forget last season’s iteration of this game, as both teams played to a 40-40 tie last season. This year’s meeting was circled back at the May schedule release as a possible return for Micah Parsons, who was traded from Dallas to Green Bay before the start of last season. However, Parsons won’t face his former team as he works back from a torn ACL.
Cowboys vs. Packers Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
Kickoff is Sunday at 8:20 PM ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. The game will air on NBC, with streaming available on Peacock and NBC.com. The familiar Sunday night duo of Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth will be on the call, with Melissa Stark providing the sideline news before and during the game.
Lambeau Field will be rocking for this matchup and the weather should be perfect for football, with temperatures at around 13-15°C at kickoff.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The home Packers are 1.5-point favourites (-105), with the Cowboys at +1.5 (-115). The money line stands with the Packers at -122, the Cowboys at +102, and the game total sits at 53.5 (over -110, under -110).
This matchup’s line opened with Dallas as a 1.5-point road favourite and flipped after their stunning loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday night, while the total has climbed from 50.5 to 53.5 at the current time.
Points have been the story for Dallas. The over is 4-1 in Cowboys games, and the team is 3-2 against the spread and 2-0 as an underdog. Green Bay is 2-3 ATS and 1-1 at home.
The Cowboys’ defence and the Packers’ deep balls are the reason the total keeps rising. Dallas has allowed a league-high 842 rushing yards and has no interceptions.
It is also giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt, third-most in the NFL, while the Packers’ passing game averages 271 yards per game, fourth-best. With Green Bay still looking for answers in their running game, they’ll likely challenge the Dallas secondary over the top.
With two capable passing attacks and a Cowboys defence that can’t get stops, the over 53.5 is the lean in a game where the Packers are laying a short number at home.
NFL Player Odds and Props
CeeDee Lamb 8+ receptions (+187)
CeeDee Lamb is averaging 7.8 receptions per game, with 39 grabs on 51 targets through five games, and he has reached eight catches in two of his last three full games, including an incredible 17 receptions against Houston.
Dallas leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation and Green Bay’s two-high coverage (62.1% of snaps, sixth-most in the league) is where Lamb does his best work, drawing a target on 29.5% of his routes against those looks.
With a total of 53.5, the Cowboys should be throwing often. The bruised quad that cut his Week 5 short is the only real risk, but with Lamb practicing in full so far this week, Lamb should be good to go barring any setbacks.
Christian Watson 100+ receiving yards (+235)
Look at how Christian Watson gets his counting stats. His last two touchdowns came on 42- and 53-yard strikes, and he has six scores on the season. Dallas is allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt, the third-most in the NFL.
Jordan Love has also hit 20-of-23 play-action throws over the last two weeks, and Watson takes 27.9% of Green Bay’s play-action targets, so a single missed assignment from the Cowboys’ secondary could be all it takes to get Watson a large chunk of the 100+ yards needed to hit here. Two would definitely eclipse or come close. We like those odds.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas’ season has been all offence and no defence. The Cowboys started with a 28-20 loss to the Giants and have flip-flopped wins and losses after that to sit at 2-3 heading into this showdown at Lambeau Field.
The offence is built on the pass, with Lamb and George Pickens combining for the second-most receiving yards of any duo in the league. Dak Prescott has been sacked only six times, but the run game featuring Javonte Williams has struggled a little bit, with Williams averaging just 3.7 yards per carry through five contests.
The defence, now under first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker, is the problem. It has no interceptions and has allowed a league-high 842 rushing yards and the 11th-most passing yards (1,135). It hasn’t been great so far, but at the very least, their offence can help pick up the slack.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 3-2 but has looked like two different teams. The offence has been slow, ranking 20th in EPA per play and scoring 20.8 points per game, and it has the league’s worst rushing attack at 60.4 yards per game.
That leaves Love, who has 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, with multiple touchdown passes in every game, and dynamic, athletic receivers to carry the load. The passing game ranks fourth at 271 yards per game, led by Watson, Matthew Golden, and tight end Tucker Kraft.
Defensively, the Packers have allowed just 905 passing yards, the fifth-fewest, and have 14 sacks through five games. The Packers forced five turnovers last week against Chicago without Parsons, whose next chance to return is Week 7 against Detroit.
DAL
GB