Falcons vs. Colts Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
The Sunday slate for Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season begins in Berlin, Germany, where the Atlanta Falcons are going up against the Indianapolis Colts. It has been a tale of two very different seasons for these two teams. Atlanta is a disappointing 3-5, while Indianapolis is among the league’s most surprising teams at 7-2.
The Falcons and Colts are relatively unfamiliar foes from different conferences. Indianapolis is dominating the all-time series 15-3, but they have faced each other three times in the last decade. The Colts have won two of those encounters, but the Falcons dominated their most recent meeting 29-10 during the 2023 regular season.
Atlanta is a 6-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 48.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Falcons are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games dating back to last season. The Colts are 6-3 ATS so far this year. There is a considerable under trend all across the board. It is 5-2-1 in Atlanta’s last eight outings, 3-0 in Indy’s last three and 3-1 in the last four head-to-head matchups.
In addition to the more traditional lines, the first-quarter spread is -0.5 in Indianapolis’ favour and the first-half spread is -3.5. The over/under for the first quarter is 9.5 and the over/under for the first half is 24.5. The Colts are -185 favourites to score the opening touchdown on Sunday, while the Falcons are +135 to get in the end zone first.
Atlanta Falcons
Going into this season, everyone figured that Atlanta’s offence would be the strength of the team. However, that has not been the case through nine weeks. The Falcons rank No. 4 league-wide in total defence (282.5 yards per game allowed) and No. 1 in passing defence (158.1 yards). They have recorded 22 sacks, which puts them in the top half of the NFL in that department. By comparison, their 31 sacks in the entire 2024 campaign were the second-fewest in the league. Atlanta came up with six sacks of New England’s Drake Maye this past weekend – two apiece for Jalon Walker, Brandon Dorlus and LaCale London.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons’ stagnant offence needs Bijan Robinson to heat back up. Since going off against Buffalo in Week 6, the star running back has been limited to 40, 25 and 46 rushing yards over the past three games.
Indianapolis Colts
Which Daniel Jones will show up this weekend? That is the question for the Colts’ offence. Jones was nothing short of a revelation in his team’s first eight outings, throwing 13 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions while getting sacked a mere nine times. It was a much different story against Pittsburgh last Sunday, when Jones tossed only one scoring strike and threw three picks. The Steelers came up with five sacks, too.
In addition to protecting its quarterback against an improved Atlanta pass rush, a key for Indianapolis’ offence will be to run the football with Jonathan Taylor. Although the Falcons are stellar in defending the pass, they can be vulnerable against the run. Taylor leads the NFL in both rushing yards (895) and touchdowns (12).
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Falcons vs. Colts?
The Falcons have gotten blown out twice this year, but more often than not they at least keep things close. With the way their defence is performing, Sunday should be no exception. Games across the pond have a tendency to be ugly, low-scoring affairs. This one may be the same. Let’s go with the Colts to prevail 24-21.
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