Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: Odds, Prediction
Two red-hot clubs kick off a Fourth of July series as the Tampa Bay Rays (51-33, 1st in the AL Central) visit the Houston Astros (43-46, 3rd in the AL Central).
The Rays are riding an eight-game winning streak, which helped them climb back from a brutal start to June to finish the month at 13-13. Meanwhile, the Astros went 16-11 in June. They did, however, just lose two of three at home to the Twins, snapping a streak of five consecutive series victories.
Despite how well these two teams have played, both starting pitchers in this matchup are coming off disastrous Junes after beginning the year phenomenally well. Let’s get into the matchup and deliver a best bet.
This game is listed as a pick’em on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Rays have been far more dominant at home. Despite their 51-33 record, they are just 20-21 on the road. The Astros have been fairly even at home and away, entering this series with a 21-23 record at home.
It is also worth noting that the Rays played a game that started at 7:40 p.m. ET on Thursday in Kansas City before traveling to Houston for Friday’s game. The Astros enjoyed a day off Thursday with no travel, as they remain at home.
Tampa Bay Rays
Offensively, the Rays’ whole modus operandi is putting the ball in play and making you play defence. They don’t slug at a high clip outside of the electrifying Junior Caminero (24 home runs). In fact, the Rays are tied for 28th in MLB with 78 home runs and rank 16th with a .397 slugging percentage.
The bigger problems are that they go from a .783 OPS at home to a .690 OPS on the road, and against right-handed pitching, they rank 27th with a .686 OPS.
The latter is especially notable because Houston starter Spencer Arrighetti has dominated right-handed hitters, allowing just a .205 batting average and .590 OPS, but has been more susceptible to damage from the left side, allowing a .375 slugging percentage and .749 OPS.
Rays veteran right-hander Nick Martinez is likely headed to the All-Star game, but it’s important to note that he posted a 5.14 ERA in June, raising his season ERA from 1.62 to 2.66.
Martinez has been stellar on the road, pitching to a 2.18 ERA, but Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have seen him well, combining to go 15-for-45 with five doubles and two home runs.
Houston Astros
This is a nice matchup of star sluggers because, opposite Caminero’s 24 home runs, Yandy Díaz’s .329 batting average (second in MLB) and Jonathan Aranda’s 58 RBIs, the Astros counter with the powerful Yordan Alvarez (26 home runs, .319 batting average, 60 RBIs).
Now, Alvarez does not have a hit against Martinez, as Martinez has been a reverse-splits pitcher with his soft stuff tailing away from lefties. The onus will be on Walker, Altuve and the rest of Houston’s right-handed attack.
I am quite confident in Arrighetti reversing his fortunes. Yes, June saw him post a 9.00 ERA over five starts, but a return home against this offence, with its lack of left-handed power and no day off after traveling, sets up as the perfect recipe to get back on track.
Plus, he has another advantage: the Rays’ current roster has totalled just five at-bats against him. Arrighetti has also been far superior at home, pitching to a 3.56 ERA compared to a 4.32 ERA on the road.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Rays vs. Astros?
I really like the under and the Astros to edge out the Rays at home, snapping Tampa Bay’s eight-game winning streak on Apple TV. Martinez should pitch well, but I expect a statement performance from Arrighetti given the matchup and scheduling context.
Neither bullpen has been especially reliable, but I think the Astros getting to stay home after a day off while the Rays travel following a night game will be the difference.
Best Bet: Astros moneyline (-110)
TB
HOU