Dolphins vs. Browns Point Spread: NFL Week 7 Odds, Prediction
The Dolphins’ season is nearing a breaking point after they lost another close game to the Chargers a week ago, while the Browns are in total free-fall following an uncompetitive loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers a week ago, dropping their record to 1-5 in the process.
With both teams looking to stay alive in the AFC and potentially turn their season around, let’s get into our Dolphins vs Browns predictions for Sunday.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Miami hasn’t been a favourite all that often this season, and the Dolphins will continue to be in the underdog role against Cleveland on the road, as the Browns are three-point favourites in this one. With both offences struggling mightily at the moment and dealing with some key injuries, it’s also not a surprise that this total is in the upper-30s, which is extremely low for an NFL game these days.
The Dolphins are 3-3 against the spread this season, while the Browns are just 2-4 ATS on the NFL odds. Games involving the Dolphins typically go over the total, with the over cashing in five of their six games played to this point. On the other hand, four of the Browns’ six games have gone under the total.
Miami Dolphins
The season has not gone according to plan for the Dolphins thus far, and things could get even worse for Tua Tagovaiola and this offence against a Browns defence that is one of the better units in the league. In fact, heading into this week, Cleveland ranks third in success rate allowed and first in opponent EPA per rush.
Miami’s offensive line has been an unmitigated disaster this season, and the Dolphins passing attack is also clearly feeling the effects of a massive season-ending injury to Tyreek Hill back on September 29. Ultimately, the Miami offence is ranked 26th in success rate, and I expect them to struggle to move the ball consistently in this one.
Cleveland Browns
As for the hosts, the Browns’ strength is clearly on the defensive side of the ball and that’s been able to keep them in some games to this point. It just so happens that Cleveland’s defence is facing a turnover-prone quarterback in Tagovailoa, along with an offence that has performed very poorly on the road to this point. All of that creates a situation where Myles Garrett and company should be able to pin their ears back and really control the game in the trenches.
The issue for Cleveland has been on offence, with Dillon Gabriel struggling mightily in his first couple of starts at the NFL level. However, the rookie quarterback should have a much easier time this week against a poor Miami defence that is ranked dead last in both EPA per play and success rate allowed through six weeks. As long as the Browns can avoid costly turnovers, they should be in a position to pick up their second win of the season.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Browns?
This game could go either way, seeing as it is a matchup between a pair of 1-5 teams. However, Cleveland looks the better overall team as presently constructed, and it doesn’t help the Dolphins’ case that their offensive line is going to struggle mightily to block this Browns defensive front. It might not look pretty, but let’s look for the Browns to take this one by a score in the region of 17-13.
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