Valkyries vs. Dream WNBA Finals Game 6 Betting Odds, Picks: Can Atlanta force Game 7?

The Golden State Valkyries are one win from a championship in their second season of existence, leading the WNBA Finals 3-2 as the series returns to Atlanta for Game 6 on Thursday, with the Dream facing elimination.

The series has swung on defence. Golden State took Game 1, 68-64, Atlanta won Game 2, 79-65, and then blew the doors off the Valkyries in Game 3, 97-71, the only game in the series to clear the total. Golden State answered with a 67-62 win in Atlanta in Game 4, then smothered the Dream in Game 5 at Chase Center, 64-55, to move within one victory of the title.

Atlanta managed just 22 first-half points in Game 5 and shot 29.2 per cent from the field (19-of-65) with seven fourth-quarter turnovers. Golden State, the No. 2 seed at 32-12, allowed the fewest points per game in the league (75.1) and swept the regular-season series 3-0.

Game 6 is set for State Farm Arena rather than the Dream’s regular-season home at Gateway Center Arena. Tip-off is 12:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, with a Game 7 in Golden State on Saturday if Atlanta forces one.

Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

Atlanta opened as a 3.5-point home favourite and has been bet up to -4.5 (-115), with the moneyline at Dream -185 and Valkyries +155. The total is 147.5, with -105 odds on the Over and -115 on the Under. Golden State is the -300 favourite to win the series on the WNBA futures board, while Atlanta has +240 odds to win two games in a row.

The Under has been the story. Game 1 totalled 132 points, Game 2 totalled 144, Game 4 totalled 129, and Game 5 totalled just 119, so four of the five games have finished under 147.5. Only Atlanta’s 97-point blowout in Game 3 cleared it, and outside of that game, no team has reached 80 points.

Golden State Valkyries

The Valkyries have won with balance. Kiah Stokes, Veronica Burton, Tiffany Hayes, and Cecilia Zandalasini all scored in double figures in Game 5 with 13, 13, 12, and 12 points. Gabby Williams, the team’s breakout star earlier in the series, scored 17 in Game 4 on 7-of-21 shooting. Stokes grabbed 16 rebounds in Game 4, and Burton had 13 points, eight rebounds and three assists in Game 5.

Golden State shot only 39.3 per cent and 6-of-24 from three in Game 5, so they won ugly. However, their defence will show up whether playing at home or away, so I expect another strong defensive performance in Game 6. No Valkyries injuries have been reported ahead of Game 6.

Atlanta Dream

Angel Reese has gone cold at the worst time, shooting 2-of-12 for eight points in Game 4 and 2-of-8 in Game 5 after a 30-point, 16-rebound Game 2. Allisha Gray also struggled, going 4-of-12 for 12 points in Game 5 and scoring only five in Game 4, and she was reported to be OK after a hard collision with Tiffany Hayes in Game 5. Rhyne Howard has been the lone consistent scorer with 20 points in Game 5 and 19 in Game 4, but she had not made more than two threes in a Finals game through Game 4 and is shooting 29.3 per cent from deep this postseason.

Brionna Jones remains out with a leg injury. Atlanta’s regular-season offence averaged 91.3 points per game, but it has been held to 62 and 55 in the last two games. The Dream will need to protect the ball better; they committed more than a dozen first-half turnovers in Game 4 that Golden State turned into easy points.

WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream Game 6?

Both teams rank among the league’s best defences, and the last two games have gone nowhere near this number. Golden State controls tempo, Atlanta is shooting poorly, and the stakes of an elimination game tend to tighten both sides further. Atlanta’s home crowd and Game 3 blowout are reasons for caution, but I expect a low-scoring grind decided in the final minutes.

Best bet: Under 147.5 (-110)

Final Score Prediction: Dream 66 | Valkyries 63