Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos: UFC Vegas 78 Odds, Prediction

It’s an all Brazilian affair in the main event of Saturday’s UFC Vegas 78 card from Las Vegas, with No. 10 welterweight contender Vicente Luque set to face No. 9 Rafael dos Anjos.

This fight is hovering right around a pick’em on the MMA odds.

Rafael dos Anjos -120
Vincente Luque -105

Vicente Luque UFC Vegas 78 Odds

Luque has a 21-9-1 record in a professional MMA career that dates back to 2009. The 31-year-old competed in various Brazilian MMA promotions before debuting in the UFC in 2015. He has a 14-5 record in the Octagon, earning wins over significant names like Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley and Niko Price.

Luque is a finisher, with just two of his 21 career victories coming by decision. He also has 11 wins by knockout and eight by submission. Saturday will mark Luque’s first fight of 2023 after back-to-back losses last year. He lost to Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision in April 2022 and lost by knockout against Geoff Neal last August.

“The Silent Assassin” averages 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute with 52 per cent accuracy. He also averages 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy. He holds a major 5.5-inch reach advantage over dos Anjos, which could prove significant for a striker of his capability.

Luque had won four straight fights and 10 of his last 11 prior to his losses against Muhammad and Neal last year, so Saturday could be a turning point in his career. Was 2022 just an off-year, or is Luque rapidly falling out of contention in the welterweight division?

Rafael dos Anjos UFC Vegas 78 Odds

Dos Anjos is a veteran fighter who has compiled a 32-14 record since his professional MMA debut in 2004. A former UFC lightweight champion, the 38-year-old now splits his time between the UFC lightweight and welterweight divisions. He’s a warrior who isn’t afraid to go the distance, with 16 career victories coming by decision. He also has 11 wins by submission and five by decision.

Dos Anjos won the UFC lightweight championship by unanimous decision against Anthony Pettis at UFC 185 in 2015. He successfully defended the title against Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone later that year, but lost the belt to Eddie Alvarez in the summer of 2016. Dos Anjos has arguably had one of the toughest strength of schedule of any fighter in UFC history, facing seven former champions and constant top-15 opponents across two divisions since his UFC debut in 2008.

Dos Anjos is more of a grappler. He averages 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with 35 per cent accuracy. Standing up, he averages 3.56 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy. Coming into Saturday, dos Anjos has won three of his last four fights, including a submission victory against Bryan Barberena in his return to welterweight last December.