Friday’s AL East divisional matchup brings together two East Coast rivals when the Tampa Bay Rays (76-51) travel up to Baltimore to face the Orioles (61-67).

The Rays are holding steady atop the AL East, with a four-game lead on the surging New York Yankees, who have won four straight games.

Meanwhile, Baltimore is in the thick of things in a hotly-contested race for the third and final AL Wild Card spot, as they’re just two games behind the Minnesota Twins. 

Before Friday’s first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.

The Orioles are -135 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

Both of these teams are above average in terms of run-scoring potential, and the Rays’ pitching has been a bit suspect over the last seven days, as they’ve lost five of their last seven games. However, they’re still scoring quite a bit. That gives us a solid out to the over 8.5 run total.

With the Rays in a bit of a funk but facing a chance for retribution after Baltimore took three of four games last weekend, the AL-East-leading Rays should be anxious to bounce back here.

Tampa Bay Rays

On the Tampa Bay side, they’re just 2-5 in their last seven games after ripping off a nine-game winning streak. Their offence in general has been solid enough, with the Rays 12th in runs scored and sixth in OPS, but they’ve been absolutely carried by Junior Caminero. Currently second behind Houston’s Yordan Alvarez in AL MVP odds, Caminero is hitting the cover off the ball, with a .896 OPS, plus 35 HR and 81 RBI. Not to be outdone is veteran Yandy Diaz, who is hitting a robust .308, a .850 OPS, plus 19 HR and 72 RBI. Add in Jonathan Aranda (.282, 15, 76 RBI), and you’ve got a potent trio of hitters.

It’s the stellar pitching from the Rays that has carried them this far to the top of the division, with four starters sporting an ERA under 3.65 and the eighth-best ERA in MLB. They’re also baseball’s best home team with a robust 43-23 clip. Besides Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan, it might be baseball’s most under-the-radar and unassuming rotation, with journeyman Nick Martinez and Ian Seymour backing them up and trade-deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta scuffling behind them.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles sport a very league-average offence, with the 16th-highest OPS and runs scored this season. Pete Alonso has been as advertised, as he’s on the cusp of 30 home runs with an .858 OPS this season.

Gunnar Henderson has disappointed with a .704 OPS, 20 HR and 51 RBI just two seasons removed from his transcendent 2024 season with a 9.1 WAR and .893 OPS. Baltimore has a ton of young bats, but most of them are underachieving this season, so you have to ask: will the Orioles tear down and rebuild, or continue and hope they round into form?

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Rays vs. Orioles?

Friday pitching matchup starts with the visiting Rays sending right-handed Freddy Peralta to the hill. Peralta, the starter Tampa got from the Mets at the trade deadline, has pitched to a ghastly 7.53 in a Rays uniform. His last outing was against these very Orioles, in which he got two outs into the fifth inning, allowing just one hit, two earned runs, three walks and two strikeouts to take the loss.

For Baltimore, it’s lefty Trevor Rogers toeing the rubber, and after a horrific May that saw his ERA get as high as 6.96, Rogers has been excellent for the Orioles as his ERA has calmed down to a manageable 4.15. Against these Rays last Sunday, Rogers allowed just two earned runs in six innings for the win.

This game should be entertaining, and even with the pitching discrepancy here favouring the home Orioles, the Rays should be able to find a way to get back on the right side of the ledger after losing three or four at home to these O’s at Tropicana Field. We’ll take the Rays.

Best bet: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (+112)

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