Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler: UFC 281 Odds, Prediction

Two lightweight fighters who have made it clear they don’t like each other are set to meet on the main card of UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday as No. 2 contender Dustin Poirier faces No. 5 Michael Chandler.

Poirier is a -245 favourite to win on the UFC odds, while Chandler is a +180 underdog.

Dustin Poirier -190
Michael Chandler +140

Dustin Poirier UFC 281 Odds

Hailing from Louisiana, the 33-year-old Poirier is 28-7 with one no contest since his professional MMA debut in 2009. A former UFC lightweight champion, Poirier is No. 11 on the UFC pound-for-pound rankings. He originally debuted as a featherweight, but made the switch to lightweight in 2015.

“The Diamond” is best know for his bitter rivalry with Irishman Conor McGregor, arguably the biggest star in MMA history. McGregor won the first of three fights between the two in 2014, before Poirier won the rematch and the trilogy fight, both in 2021. The Irishman suffered a broken leg in the last fight and has not fought since.

Poirier has had two title shots for the lightweight belt, but failed in both bids. He challenged the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019, losing by third-round submission. Poirier was also submitted in the third-round in his last title challenge, this time falling to Charles Oliveira. Those remain his only losses in 11 fights since 2017.

The 5-foot-9 Poirier has a slim half-inch reach advantage over Chandler. He has 14 career wins via knockout, seven via submission and seven via decision. Poirier averages 5.61 significant strikes landed per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and 53 per cent defence. He also averages 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy and 64 per cent defence.

Poirier has a well deserved reputation as an exciting fighter who takes risks, but he’s become more cautious over the last few years, particularly in the two McGregor fights in 2021. He’ll likely try to wear Chandler down and be patient as he waits for his opportunity to land a big shot.

Michael Chandler UFC 281 Odds

The 36-year-old Chandler, from Missouri, is 23-7 since his professional MMA debut in 2009. He’s spent the majority of his career in the Bellator promotion where he became a three-time Bellator lightweight champion and was the winner of the Bellator Season Four Lightweight Tournament.

“Iron” made the jump to the UFC in January 2021. He’s produced mixed results since then, winning his UFC debut with a first-round TKO victory against Dan Hooker before suffering a second-round TKO loss against Charles Oliveira in a failed title bid.

Chandler won Fight of the Year in his bout with Justin Gaethje last November, albeit in a unanimous decision loss. He last fought in May, knocking out Tony Ferguson with a vicious front kick in the second-round.

The 5-foot-8 Chandler has 11 career victories via knockout, seven via submission and five via decision. He averages 5.17 significant strikes landed per minute with 46 per cent accuracy and 45 per cent defence. Chandler also averages 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy and 71 per cent defence.

There’s no denying Chandler is tough and has the potential to win this fight, but there are concerns about conditioning and he’s coming off fights that have seen him dropped by Ferguson and Oliveira. He’s a strong striker and a quality wrestler, so his best strategy in this fight is likely to diversify his attack and come at Poirier multiple ways.