Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley: UFC 280 Odds, Prediction

The last fight on the UFC 280 main card from Abu Dhabi that isn’t a title bout Saturday afternoon is an excellent bantamweight matchup between ex-champion Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley. Yan is a -260 favourite to win on the MMA odds with O’Malley +190.

Petr Yan -230
Sean O'Malley +170

Petr Yan UFC 280 Odds

Aljamain Sterling is the bantamweight champion (and on this card), and the 29-year-old Yan (16-3), from Russia, is the No. 1 contender. Yan has fought in four title bouts previously in the division: He beat the legendary Jose Aldo by fifth-round TKO at UFC 251 then lost the belt to Sterling by fourth-round disqualification (illegal knee) at UFC 259 – many thought Sterling could have kept fighting. Yan became the first fighter in UFC history to lose a title by disqualification.

With Sterling sidelined by a different injury, Yan got a shot at the interim belt at UFC 267 and beat Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision. Then it was a Sterling rematch in April and Yan lost by split decision. Sterling largely dominated the first three rounds and Yan the final two.

UFC president Dana White has said O’Malley could have a breakout moment with a win over Yan, just like Conor McGregor did when he dethroned Aldo, but Yan is having none of it:

“Considering the other side of things, you can definitely compare it to Conor-Aldo fight. Sean is a UFC project and Conor wannabe, but the result of this matchup will be different. You saw my fight with Aldo already.”

“No Mercy” is 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach and his fights average 16:12. He lands 5.45 significant strikes per minutes with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.88 per minute with 61 per cent defence. Yan’s takedown average is 1.48 per 15 minutes with 61 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 90 per cent. That’s the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class.

Yan’s 10 knockdowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are tied with Marlon Vera for most in divisional history. Eight of his wins are by decision, seven by KO/TKO and one by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at -145, then KO/TKO/DQ at +200 and submission +1200.

Sean O’Malley UFC 280 Odds

The 32-year-old O’Malley (15-1), originally from Montana but now fighting out of the Phoenix area, is ranked No. 11 in the division. His lone loss came at UFC 252 against Vera by first-round TKO (elbows and punches). O’Malley was later diagnosed with drop foot, which was the result of a leg kick landed by Vera.

“Sugar” is unbeaten since then in four fights but comes off a no contest vs. Pedro Munhoz in July due to an accidental eye poke by O’Malley in the second round that left Munhoz unable to continue.

O’Malley will have a four-inch height advantage here as he’s 5-foot-11 and a five-inch reach advantage with his at 72 inches. His fights average just 8:25. O’Malley lands 7.75 significant strikes per minute (highest rate in UFC bantamweight history) with 62 per cent accuracy (best in divisional history) and absorbs 3.48 per minute with 64 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.54 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 64 per cent.

A total of 11 of O’Malley’s wins are by KO/TKO, three by decision and one by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +345, then KO/TKO/DQ at +460 and submission at +2500. O’Malley’s five knockout victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind TJ Dillashaw (seven) and Vera (six).

That this fight goes the three-round distance is -198 with no at +136.