NBA Back to the Futures: Latest NBA Championship odds and hot/cold teams to watch
We are just a couple of games into the final third of the NBA regular season, following the 2026 NBA All-Star break. Despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still being on the shelf managing his abdominal injury, and Jayson Tatum’s season-long absence to this point, the most recent two NBA champs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, each find themselves with two of the four best records in the sport on February 23.
OKC still owns the sport’s top record and is 2-0 since the break, getting big-time performance from their young depth. The Celtics are also 2-0 since the break, comfortably dispatching the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers on the road. Jaylen Brown has been on one, while San Antonio and Detroit keep surging, each with 40+ wins and 2-0 marks since the break.
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How did the NBA Championship odds change?
At the top, Oklahoma City (+130) remains the clear favourite, though its price has drifted slightly from +125. The Thunder are still the defending champs and deepest team in basketball, but SGA’s absence and a few uneven performances before the break have injected just a touch of uncertainty. Denver (+600) remains steady as the market’s most trusted alternative. Nikola Jokić is healthy, and continuity with the Nuggets core breathes a sense of reliability.
The biggest movers near the top are clustered at +1100: San Antonio, Boston, and Detroit. The Spurs have shortened from +1400 amid their continued defensive dominance. Boston’s number tightened despite Tatum’s injury, as Jaylen Brown continues playing at an MVP-calibre level. Detroit, meanwhile, continues to command respect as the East’s most physically imposing group.
Cleveland (+1300) has held firm, while New York (+1500) and Houston (+2200) have ballooned slightly. Minnesota has slid to +3300, and Philadelphia now sits at +4500.
Hot and cold teams to watch out for
San Antonio is no longer a cute futures ticket. The Spurs rank in the top three in defensive rating over the past month and continue to solve Oklahoma City, both schematically and physically. Victor Wembanyama looks more comfortable carrying late-game responsibility, and their supporting cast has been remarkable and deep, with significant bench points becoming second nature.
Boston deserves attention as well. The Celtics have quietly gone 7-1 in February, with Jaylen Brown averaging 28.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game during that stretch. Their defensive connectivity has improved, and they’re winning slower, more playoff-style games.
On the colder side, Houston’s half-court offence continues to sputter. They remain elite defensively, but the lack of shot creation late in games has cost them repeatedly. Minnesota’s defensive slippage has also been concerning, especially on the road.
Keep an eye on Cleveland, though. James Harden’s integration has gone smoother than expected, and their offence has shown a higher ceiling in crunch time. If their defence stabilizes, that +1300 number may not last.
Best NBA Championship futures bet to lock in right now: Celtics to win the NBA Championship (+1100)
Two weeks ago, the value was San Antonio. That number has tightened. Now, Boston at +1100 stands out.
Of course, speculation of Tatum’s accelerated return, with a mystery timetable that could even see him back this week, adds intrigue and an upside to this play. But as things stand, if it wasn’t already settled, Jaylen Brown has blossomed into a true No. 1 option, and Boston’s supporting cast has responded. The Celtics are defending at a top-10 rate, rebounding well, and have one of the league’s more balanced playoff rotations.
Most importantly, the East lacks a dominant superpower. Detroit is tough but young, Cleveland is still adjusting, and New York has been streaky.
At 11-1, you’re getting a battle-tested organization with a championship pedigree and upward momentum at the right time. If Tatum returns at any point before or during the postseason, this price disappears quickly.