Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
After being blown out in the first two games of the ALCS at home, the Toronto Blue Jays climbed back into the series with a 13-4 win in Game 3 on Wednesday in Seattle.
Can the Blue Jays tie the series up and guarantee they will at least make it to Game 7 at home, or will the Mariners take a 3-1 stranglehold when the teams meet for Game 4 on Thursday night?
Seattle is a -125 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.
Betting Analysis
Wednesday’s win has given Toronto a 5-4 edge in wins over the Mariners in 2025 dating back to the regular season. The Jays are now just the third team in 11 instances to lose the first two games of a 2-3-2 formatted series at home and go on to win Game 3.
Toronto is in the ALCS for the first time since 2016 as they look to reach the World Series for the first time since they won the Fall Classic back-to-back years in 1992 and 1993. It’s the Mariner’s first ALCS appearance since 2001 as they aim to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
The updated series line has Seattle at -250 (entered Game 3 -650) and Toronto at +200 (was +475). George Springer, who has five hits against the Mariners, is a +250 favourite to lead the series in hits. Cal Raleigh has two home runs and is a +175 favourite to lead the series in dingers.
Toronto Blue Jays
After combining for only four runs and 13 hits in the first two games of the ALCS, The Blue Jays’ bats exploded in Game 3 for 13 runs on 18 hits with five home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Andreas Gimenez, Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger all went deep, totalling 2,004 feet of homers.
It will be 41-year-old Max Scherzer on the mound for Game 4. The future Hall-of-Famer was left off the ALDS roster and hasn’t pitched since his last regular season start on Sept. 24. Toronto is hoping he’ll be rested and the team will be able to lean on the veteran’s experience as he has 26 postseason starts in his career. However, Scherzer struggled down the stretch this season, going 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last six starts.
Seattle Mariners
It looked like Seattle was in the driver’s seat early in Game 3 as Julio Rodriguez launched a two-run home run in the first inning. However, the Mariners were outscored 12-0 between the second and eighth innings in a dramatic turnaround. Cal Raleigh, who led the majors with 60 home runs in the regular season, hit his third homer of the playoffs late in the game. He has three hits, two home runs and two RBIs through three games of the ALCS.
Right-hander Luis Castillo gets the start in Game 4. Castillo pitched 1 1/3 innings of relief against Detroit in Game 5 of the ALDS. The 32-year-old’s 32 regular season starts led the Mariners and he finished 2025 with an 11-8 record and a 3.54 ERA. He’s been hot down the stretch, posting a 1.07 ERA across 25 1/3 innings in his final four starts of the regular season.
TOR
SEA