Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: Odds, Prediction
Baseball returns to the cornfields on Thursday night, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins meeting in Dyersville, Iowa, for MLB’s Field of Dreams game. First pitch is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, with the game streaming on Netflix.
The nostalgia is fun, but this game matters. Minnesota sits 60-62 and within striking distance of an AL Wild Card spot, while Philadelphia is battling for position in a crowded NL Wild Card race. The Twins enter after a 7-5 win over Baltimore, while the Phillies have dropped consecutive series.
The game is a pick’em on the MLB odds, with the total pegged at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
If you’re looking for a trend, Minnesota has been an Over machine, going 68-52-2 against game totals. That becomes especially interesting at a new venue with two shaky bullpens, as Minnesota ranks fifth-worst in baseball with a 4.79 relief ERA and Philadelphia sixth-worst at 4.47.
The Twins are also 67-55 against the spread, while Philadelphia has struggled mightily at 46-76 ATS. Rain in the forecast adds another wrinkle to a unique night.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia’s lineup is undeniably top-heavy, but that top is pretty imposing.
Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 35 home runs and a .902 OPS, while Bryce Harper has 25 homers and 71 RBIs. Trea Turner and Bryson Stott have each produced an OPS north of .900 since the All-Star break.
The road numbers are concerning, however. Philadelphia ranks 29th with a .651 road OPS.
Aaron Nola is an even bigger worry. He owns a 5.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while surrendering a staggering 29 home runs. His 5.30 ERA at night doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota’s lineup lacks Philadelphia’s star power, particularly if Byron Buxton remains sidelined. The 25-homer slugger hasn’t played since July 28, and getting him back for this showcase would provide a massive lift.
In his absence, Josh Bell has been tremendous, batting .342 with a 1.054 OPS in August. He also knows Nola extremely well, going 8-for-41 with three home runs against him.
Taj Bradley provides Minnesota with the starting-pitching advantage. He’s 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and ranks 13th in baseball with 148 strikeouts, although his 4.26 road ERA and 4.21 nighttime mark make him less intimidating in this setting.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Phillies vs. Twins?
Nola’s home-run issues are impossible to ignore, Bradley has been less dominant away from home, and neither bullpen is particularly trustworthy. Philadelphia’s hitters also have some encouraging history against Bradley, with Harper recording two doubles in three at-bats and both Schwarber and Turner taking him deep.
I’m riding with the Phillies, too. Philadelphia has more high-end offensive talent and ranks eighth in baseball with a .741 OPS following a loss. After consecutive series defeats, I expect its stars to deliver under the Field of Dreams spotlight.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs (-120)
PHI
MIN