St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Tompkins
Friday afternoon’s NL Central clash pits two hated rivals in a Wrigley Field showdown as the St. Louis Cardinals (61-60) travel to the north side of Chicago to face the Chicago Cubs (71-51).
The Cardinals are still very much in the thick of things in the National League Wild Card race, as they’re just three games back from the Philadelphia Phillies for the final spot. For the Cubs, they’re six games clear of the San Diego Padres for the top Wild Card spot and just four games back from the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central.
Before Friday’s first pitch at 2:20 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.
The Cubs are -185 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
While the Cardinals sport a very pedestrian offence fit for a .500-treading ball club, the Cubs are tops in Major League Baseball in total offensive WAR, second in runs scored, third in OPS, and sixth in home runs.
With Matthew Liberatore taking the bump for the Cardinals, the Cubs have a great opportunity to erase the 7-0 blanking by the Washington Nationals on Thursday to get at Liberatore early and often with their elite offence.
The runline for the Cubs seems incredibly attractive, seeing as the Cubs have a stopper of their own in Clay Holmes.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were not expected to be anywhere near a playoff spot, much less competing for one well into August and into September, but that’s where we are. Finding the players to build a contender around is difficult, but for St. Louis, they may have found their offensive core with rookie JJ Wetherholt (4.3 WAR, 16 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB), Jordan Walker (3.4 WAR, 23 HR, 84 RBI, .832 OPS), and Alec Burleson (2.4 WAR, 19 HR, 84 RBI) working their magic for this quick turnaround.
It’ll take a bit more patience with the pitching. Perhaps they’ve found something with Andre Pallante (12-6, 3.46 ERA) and Michael McGreevy (3.94 ERA)? They’ll have to figure out their top-end pitching soon if they want to maximize this competitive window they’ve found themselves in, somewhat unexpectedly.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have the fifth-best record in all of baseball; could they be the National League club to knock the Dodgers off the perch? The Cubs, with all the productive bats they have ranging from Seiya Suzuki (.838 OPS) to Michael Busch (.741 OPS) and Ian Happ (.742 OPS), are still living and dying by the prodigious bat of Pete Crow-Armstrong.
And why wouldn’t they? Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best in baseball this season with his .920 OPS and .281/.381/.539 triple slash, plus 30 stolen bases to boot to go with an almost assured 30-30 season… maybe even a 40-40 season? PCA has the National League MVP in his sights entering the last month and a half of the regular season.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Cardinals vs. Cubs?
The visiting Cardinals will send out young lefty Matthew Liberatore to the mound, and he’s gone through plenty of struggles this season, with a 5-9 record and a 5.15 ERA, which shot up thanks to giving up five earned in five innings at home against the Colorado Rockies.
Facing Liberatore for the home Cubs is Clay Holmes, whom the Cubs acquired at the trade deadline. Holmes made his Cubs’ debut last Saturday, as he went four innings and gave up four earned runs. He’ll look to make a better impression at home against the Cardinals in his first Wrigley Field start as a member of the Cubs.
This game should be a great one, and with the Cubs at home and still riding high after wins in eight of 10 games, we’re going with the Cubs’ runline.
Best bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+123)