Colts vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Odds, Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts will head to Gillette Stadium on Thursday night to open the 2026 NFL pre-season against the New England Patriots. This matchup is as much about roster evaluation as it is about football. New England comes in fresh off a remarkable 2025 campaign that saw Mike Vrabel’s team go 14-3 and reach the Super Bowl, where they fell to a dominant Seattle defence. For the Colts, the summer has been defined by two storylines: Daniel Jones’s road back from a torn Achilles suffered last December and the wide-open competition between the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Anthony Richardson, and rookie Riley Leonard for the backup role.
The two teams held a spirited joint practice at Gillette Stadium on Tuesday, with both Jones and Maye generating highlights; Jones connected with WR Josh Downs for a touchdown before Maye ended his session with an interception on a deep shot. Both quarterbacks are expected to watch Thursday’s game from the sidelines, making the backup depth chart battle the central storyline of the night. It is just the third pre-season meeting between these franchises in history, with the Colts winning the first two matchups.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
New England opens as a slight home underdog at +135 on the NFL odds board, with the Colts (-165 money line favourites) coming in at -2.5 on the spread. The Over/Under is set at 37.5; a total that reflects the expected absence of both starting quarterbacks and the evaluative nature of the contest.
With Richardson and Leonard both competing for meaningful snaps for Indianapolis and Tommy DeVito leading the Patriots’ backup rotation, the QB depth battle adds genuine intrigue that could influence scoring output in either direction. Unders typically do well in the pre-season, but the Over was 31-18 in last season’s pre-season contests, and the Hall of Fame Game just last week produced 63 points.
Indianapolis Colts
Jones’s recovery from his torn Achilles has been the overriding news from the Colts’ camp at Grand Park, and head coach Shane Steichen was direct after Tuesday’s joint practice: there is no chance Jones plays Thursday. Richardson, who missed the majority of the 2025 season with a shoulder injury, enters the pre-season with first-team reps and has reportedly shown improved decision-making through two weeks of camp.
Rookie Riley Leonard has also drawn attention, and the Colts.com training camp notebook specifically highlighted sophomore tight end Tyler Warren as a standout in the joint practice session. Sauce Gardner, acquired from the Jets last season, gives Indianapolis a genuine No. 1 corner to build around defensively.
New England Patriots
Vrabel has not ruled out a Maye appearance entirely, but the expectation heading into Thursday is that the third-year quarterback, who finished second in MVP voting last season, will watch from the sideline. The pre-season opener is all about evaluating the depth behind him, with Tommy DeVito and Behren Morton competing for the backup role.
The addition of A.J. Brown via a June trade from Philadelphia gives Maye a genuine No. 1 receiver for the 2026-27 season, and Brown immediately showed up in joint practice, winning a one-on-one against Sauce Gardner early in the session. The one injury concern to monitor is Christian Gonzalez, who missed Tuesday’s joint practice for the first time all summer.
Who Will Win Colts vs. Patriots?
It’s always difficult picking a side in the pre-season, so I’ll go with points in this one. Early matchups between backup-heavy rosters have historically trended toward points rather than defensive dominance, and this matchup offers a compelling Over case regardless of whether either starter takes a snap.
Indianapolis’s Richardson and Leonard are both trying to make statements, while New England’s backup unit is operating behind an offensive line that showed genuine punch during joint practice. Looser defensive assignments and the lack of game-speed preparation for backup units typically allow offences to find openings. Back the Over and trust the points to flow in an exhibition setting with real roster stakes on both sides.