NC State (11) vs. Purdue (1) Final Four Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The Boilermakers opened as 9.5-point favourites to win on the college basketball odds, with the total set at 145.5.
NC State Wolfpack vs. Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
This is the fourth appearance in the Final Four for NC State and the first since 1983. The last two times the Wolfpack made it this far in the NCAA Tournament they went on to win the national championship in 1974 and 1983. Purdue has only made two previous Final Four appearances in 1969 and 1980 as they continue to search for their first national title in school history.
NC State is riding a nine-game win streak and they were a solid 10-2 straight up in neutral site games this season. They’re a middling 20-19-1 against the spread overall, but their late-season surge has helped them cover in seven of their last eight games. The Wolfpack have hit the Over in six of their last seven games against Big Ten opponents.
Purdue is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall and 10-1 SU in neutral site games this year. They’ve been a solid cover option, going 21-15-1 ATS overall, including 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The total has gone Under in three of four tournament games for the Boilermakers.
NC State Wolfpack (11)
NC State is obviously the surprise of the tournament, considering they finished 10th in the ACC regular season standings this year and only earned a tournament berth thanks to a surprise ACC Tournament title. The Wolfpack’s last two games were their most impressive as they knocked off No. 2 Marquette in the Sweet 16 and No. 4 Duke in the Elite Eight. DJ Burns Jr. delivered again against Duke, finishing with 29 points. DJ Horne added 20 points. Burns is averaging 18.3 ppg in the tournament while Burns is averaging 16.5 ppg.
Defence is key to this NC State team. In the Sweet 16 they limited Marquette to just 12.9 per cent shooting from three and in the Elite Eight they held Duke to 32.2 per cent shooting from the field. They also have the size to limit, if not contain, Canadian Zach Edey. Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks are each 6-foot-10 while Burns is 6-foot-9 and weighs 260 pounds. It’s a tough ask for NC State to shutdown Edey, but it’s the only chance they have in this game.
Purdue Boilermakers (1)
Purdue got over the hump of last year’s embarrassing first-round exit and seem poised to compete for their first national championship. The Boilermakers have rolled to double digit wins in three of four tournament games, winning by an average margin of over 21 ppg. Their 72-66 win against No. 2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight was their closest game of the tournament. Edey scored a career-high 40 points and added 16 rebounds for his fourth double-double of the tournament. The Toronto native is averaging an outstanding 30 points and 16 rebounds through four tournament games.
One weird anomaly from Purdue’s Elite Eight victory is their 3-for-15 stat line from three. It was likely a one-off performance as the Boilermakers have the second-best three-point shooting percentage in the nation at 40.6 per cent. The result isn’t as surprising when you consider Purdue picked up 40 points from the paint. That adaptability to supply points from the paint should come in handy in the Final Four as NC State is great at shutting down outside shooters. Edey continues to get better and better, so look for him to drag Purdue to the national championship game by himself if he needs to.
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