NCAAF
Payton Matthews
August 30, 2023

LSU vs. Florida State Point Spread: 2023 NCAA Week 1 Odds, Prediction

The Tigers are 2-point favourites on the NCAA odds.

Pointspread

LSU -110 -2
Florida St -110 +2

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Because there are no NFL games this Sunday (for the last time in months), there are three college football games on what is the Labor Day holiday weekend in the USA. It’s extremely rare for two preseason Top 10 teams to face off in Week 1 as happens here with No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State. It’s only the second season-opening Top 10 matchup between teams who started the previous season unranked.

Moneyline

LSU -130
Florida St +107

Both schools could absolutely reach the College Football Playoff, although it obviously will be harder for Sunday’s loser. Playing in the ultra-tough SEC, LSU probably is going to lose again. ACC school FSU should be favored in every other game but Sept. 23 at Clemson.

Florida State is 8-2 all-time against LSU, including a wild 24-23 win over the Tigers early in the 2022 season in New Orleans. LSU scored as time expired to pull within a point but the PAT try was blocked. The Seminoles have won five straight games in the series

LSU Tigers

Not many knew what to expect from LSU last year in the first season with Brian Kelly as head coach after he surprisingly left Notre Dame, but the Tigers surely exceeded all expectations by winning the SEC West – thanks largely to a stunning upset of Alabama – before getting trounced by eventual national champion Georgia in the SEC title game. LSU finished 10-4 with a blowout of Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. The offence should be loaded again with QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Jayden Daniels and leading receiver Malik Nabers (72 catches, 1,017 yards, three TDs) among those back. Daniels’ 43 career starts (Arizona State before LSU) rank third among active FBS quarterbacks. The defence took a few more hits led by pass-rushers BJ Ojulari and Ali Gaye leaving. Starting defensive tackle Maason Smith is suspended for Week 1. It marks the first time since 2011 that LSU opens in a Top-10 matchup, and the Tigers beat Oregon that year.

Florida State Seminoles

FSU coach Mike Norvell entered Year 3 in Tallahassee on the hot seat, but the Seminoles also exceeded expectations greatly in 2022 with a 10-3 mark capped by a 35-32 win over Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl. The 2023 Seminoles might be the most talented group at the school since Jameis Winston won the Heisman Trophy in 2013 and led FSU to its last national title. The No. 8 ranking is the program’s highest in the preseason since 2017. Led by QB and Heisman Trophy contender Jordan Travis and one of the nation’s best pass-rushers and likely 2024 NFL first-round pick Jared Verse, a whopping 77 players are back from last season. Those players combined to account for 89.2 per cent of FSU’s total offense and 68.7 per cent of its defensive production. FSU is playing in a Top-10 season opener for the fourth time in program history and first time since 2017 when it lost to No. 1 Alabama. While this is technically a neutral-site game in Orlando, needless to say it will be mostly FSU fans. The Seminoles are 10-0-2 all-time in that city, which is about 250 miles from campus.