Bills vs. Texans NFL Betting Odds, Picks: Josh Allen is NFL MVP Favourite
Arguably the best matchup in the NFL Week 1 slate on Sunday features a pair of AFC playoff teams from a season ago as former league MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills visit Houston. The Texans won’t be home underdogs much this season but are +1.5 on the NFL odds with a total of 44.5.
Bills vs. Texans Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
The one great thing about the NFL is that every game matters, and the winner of this Week 1 matchup already would own a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker for the playoffs. And it would be a huge upset if either Buffalo or Houston didn’t play extra football again. It kicks at 1 ET on Sunday, is shown on TSN and DAZN. The Texans play under a retractable roof that is almost never open, so no weather worries.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
Led by quarterback Josh Allen, who may well be the best all-around player in the NFL at this point, the Bills have made the playoffs seven straight seasons, but they still haven’t been back to the Super Bowl since losing a fourth straight in the big game following the 1993 campaign. The window is still wide open with Allen in his prime at age 30 and the +650 favourite to win a second career regular-season MVP.
Houston has made the playoffs each of the past three seasons but lost in the Divisional Round in each. There are a lot of questions now surrounding QB CJ Stroud. He looked like a former MVP in 2023 in winning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year but has regressed since then and was a turnover machine in last season’s playoffs. Stroud is eligible for a massive extension on his rookie deal, but the Texans are being a bit cautious.
Including one postseason matchup, Houston is 8-5 all-time vs. Buffalo. They met in Houston in Week 12 last season on a Thursday night and the Texans won 23-19. Their stellar defence had eight sacks and forced three turnovers. The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings.
NFL Player Odds and Props
Go with both No. 1 running backs for an anytime touchdown in Houston’s David Montgomery at -130 and Buffalo’s James Cook at +140. The one thing you have to worry regarding Cook is that Bills QB Josh Allen might snake a rushing TD, but Cook totaled 14 TDs last year on the ground/receiving. Montgomery should be the clear goal-line back for the Texans after being acquired in the offseason from Detroit.
Buffalo Bills
Week 1 will be the NFL regular-season head coach debut for Buffalo’s Joe Brady. He was promoted from offensive coordinator in the offseason after the surprise firing of defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott. All he did was lead the team to a 98-50 record in the regular season, but it was an 8-8 playoff mark that was the problem because the Bills couldn’t get over the hump with him. They had won
five consecutive AFC East titles from 2020-2024 before finishing second at 12-5 behind the Patriots last season. The Bills have won 73 regular season games in the past six seasons, the most wins ever in a six-season span by any team without a Super Bowl trip. Promoting Brady made sense as he had been with the organization since 2022, initially joining McDermott’s staff as the team’s quarterbacks coach. Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator on Nov. 14, 2023, and since then Buffalo has the NFL’s best overall record and ranks first in EPA per play. Brady will continue to call the offensive plays in his role as head coach and surely star QB Josh Allen had to sign off on this. He has been responsible for 301 touchdowns in his first eight seasons (passing/rushing/receiving), by far an NFL record over a player’s first eight. The under is the past five between the teams.
Houston Texans
While Buffalo usually wins with offence, the Texans do with defence as that unit was No. 1 in total defence (277.2 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring defence (17.4 PPG) last season. Pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. got a monster extension in the offseason and is a future Defensive Player of the Year. Anderson & Danielle Hunter have combined for 50.0 sacks since 2024, the most by a teammate duo in the NFL. No doubt Houston has the league’s top secondary, and the team had four players with at least four interceptions in 2025. No team has had that many players with that many interceptions since 2017. Texans QB C.J. Stroud has won 28 regular-season games in his first three seasons as starter. That’s the same amount of wins that Buffalo star Josh Allen had in his first three. Houston boosted the running back room in the offseason with a trade for Detroit’s David Montgomery but recently got some bad news in the receivers’ room with second-year Jayden Higgins lost for the year to a torn ACL. He started 10 games and had 525 receiving yards and six touchdowns during his rookie season. Houston is 5-1 ATS in its past six as a dog.
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