Manchester United vs. Manchester City EPL Betting Odds, Picks: Red Devils open as home underdogs

As exciting as always, the fresh Premier League season is back with a set of spectacular marquee matchups that will have your head spinning.

This week, the 199th Manchester Derby takes place, as the newly-managed City head over to Old Trafford to tackle longtime rivals, United.

This is one you won’t want to miss out on, so tune in to your TV screens for kick-off this Sunday at 11:30 am ET.

Manchester United vs. Manchester City EPL Odds and Betting Trends

While the Red Devils of United have a well-rooted history of dominance, the City Sky Blues are slowly catching up in head-to-head wins, currently at 62 total to United’s 81, with 55 total draws in the mix.

Having said that, United have lost only one of the last six meetings in 90 minutes – losing the Community Shield in 2024 on penalties – winning three of those games, including a 2-0 success at Old Trafford last season.

United have home stadium advantage again this weekend, although they will be the matchup’s underdogs at +210 on the moneyline. 

City have looked daunting so far with Erling Haaland’s current goalscoring form, and they are +110 away favourites for this one, with a draw priced at +280. The under 3.5 is favoured at -164, with the over set at +134.

Manchester City

Only City and Arsenal maintain a perfect three-for-three record, both with a GD of five, but the Sky Blues head into EPL matchweek four top of the standings having scored more goals – seven to the Gunners’ six. 

Enzo Maresca’s side have won their last two games with a shutout, beating Coventry 1-0 in the Premier League before securing a 2-0 success at FC Porto in the Champions League. The victory in Portugal stemmed from a Haaland brace after the Citizens enjoyed 60 per cent possession, fired off 17 shots 10 of which were on target, in a dominant showing.

The Norwegian striker has now scored five goals in the last three straight games, which includes a brace against Crystal Palace in the Premier League as well as the midweek double in the Champions League, and he enters the game as the most likely to score anytime at -110 odds.

While teammate Rayan Cherki (+360) has two goals to his name so far this season, Antoine Semenyo will be fired up to earn his first goal of the season at +220, and a big one at that.

Manchester United

United did win the most recent matchup in January, beating City 2-0 on Michael Carrick’s return to the dugout, but have already dropped more points than they would have liked with an embarrassing 2-0 loss to newly-promoted Hull City in their season opener.

The Red Devils did bounce back promptly with a 5-2 crushing of Ipswich Town in their second matchup, but then dropped two points in a 2-2 draw with Everton most recently, pegged back with almost the last kick of the game. 

One thing is looking up for Carrick’s side, and that’s that United are capable of scoring goals, with the second-highest tally this season (seven, alongside City) behind only Brighton and Chelsea. 

Bruno Fernandes has been paramount to the Red Devils’ success in the midfield, leading the team in Premier League goals with three to his name, while also scoring in United’s most recent 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah.

Alongside the Portuguese midfielder, Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo have combined for the other three league goals the side has scored so far this season (excluding one own goal). Both attackers enter this matchup priced to score at +180 and +250 respectively.

EPL Prediction: Who Will Win Manchester United vs. Manchester City?

These matchups are never easy to predict, but just following trends alone, it’s time for a Man City win.

We’ve seen time and time again Haaland single-handedly determine the outcome of matches, and this fixture will be a massive test to see who’s in the top-four running for this English Premier League season.

City have a better track record from last season to now, and have allowed four fewer goals than their Red rivals and will be hungry for a big upset on the road.

United may have talented playmakers, but given their inconsistencies so far this season despite being on home turf, count on a 2-1 Manchester City win, with Haaland leading from the front, in another exhilarating Manchester Derby.